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EUROPE
GERMAN
ELECTIONS
Merkel Faces Triple
Challenge as States Vote Amid Refugee Crisis – BB
What do Sunday’s German
state elections mean for Merkel? – Reuters
German voters batter
Merkel over migrant policy – Reuters
Merkel's CDU Loses
Support in Elections Swayed by Refugee Crisis – BB
5 takeaways from
Merkel’s election drubbing – Politico
Angela Merkel's CDU
suffers German state election setbacks – BBC
A 'wake-up call' for
Merkel, media and politicians say – Reuters
Divisions Over Merkel’s
Refugee Policy Laid Bare in Votes – BB
Germans Turn to
Trump-Style Politics in Challenge to Merkel – BB
Merkel: “AfD a problem,
not a threat” – Politico
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB and the End of
Central-Bank Stimulus – WSJ
European Bank Credit One
of the Winners From ECB Stimulus – WSJ
Making ECB corporate
bond buying ‘fairer’ and better targeted – Tony Yates
The problem with ECB
corporate bond buying – Tyler Cowen
Münchau: EC has lost the
plot on inflation – FT
Davies: The end of
negative rates, but not central bank alchemy – FT
Keohane: The ECB,
liquidity fear and an expandable shopping list – FT
Gilbert: ECB Paints
Lipstick on Euro's Banking Pigs – View
/ BB
Traders: New TLTROs will
have most effect on the economy – Reuters
What will be on the
ECB’s shopping list? – ABN
AMRO
Quantifying ECB’s
stimulus – an extra 0.3% boost to inflation – Pictet
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
No rate hike now but
door to be left open for April or June – Nordea
El-Erian: What the Fed
Will and Won't Do This Week – View / BB
Fed to sit tight on
rates at March meet, hint at hikes to come – Reuters
Fed set to keep door
open for a June hike – Danske Bank
How To
"Pre-Trade" FOMC Days – ZH
FOMC Preview and Review
of Projections – Bill
McBride
OTHER
While the market
certainly disagreed, the ECB’s message implies the central bank means business.
Yesterday’s market action is unlikely to be durable, and we expect both rates
and the euro to start falling again before long. We are still not calling for
the long end of the German yield curve to fall into negative territory,
however. We postpone our parity call for EUR/USD into mid-2017.
Traders have shifted
attention to falling production from their earlier preoccupation with rising
inventories. That switch may have helped put a floor under oil prices, as the
outlook for non-OPEC supply deteriorates.
Many FX crosses near key
technical levels, maybe some correction in equities is due? But beyond the very
short term, the picture is still quite bullish, and inflation is a big threat
to USD.
Deutsche Bank: One Hawkish Fed Statement Away From
A Sharp Re-Pricing – ZH
The Macro Take: ECB
digestion rumbles into Fed Wednesday
From discipline's
margins, new theory challenges deficit taboo * Calls for fiscal help are
growing as post-2008 recovery lags
REGULARS
US Morning – WSJ
The Federal Reserve and
Bank of Japan issue policy decisions this week following a major stimulus
announcement by the European Central Bank on Thursday
Risk-on in Asia; EUR/USD and oil
steady ahead of busy central bank week * Central bank week: Fed, BoE, BoJ on
hold, Norges Bank to cut rates * Risk-on sentiment dominated bond markets on
Friday * Commodity currencies the big winners recently
The fundamental ethos that has
sustained the European ideal for more than 50 years looks increasingly fragile
as Germany's voters turned their back on Angela Merkel's refugee policy with
large swathes falling into the embrace of the hard right.
Dollar Firmer to Start the Week
The rise of the fringe
Daily Shot – TF
The ECB's decision to
cast a negative-rate lifeline to the Eurozone banking sector is doomed to
backfire and undermine investor confidence instead: this has already happened
in Japan. Meanwhile further problems for the EU are looming after Angela Merkel
was clobbered in Germany's regional elections and out of China come more signs that
the authorities are stepping up their fiscal policy stimulus programme.
CDU and SPD suffer
losses in German regional elections as populist AfD makes gains *
Osborne: EU-Canada free
trade deal not appropriate model for UK * Independent on Sunday: Obama to make
pro-EU membership intervention in London next month * Austria piles pressure on
Berlin to limit asylum applications
Merkel debacle — Brexit
fever spreads — France rethinks reform
Central Bank Rally Fizzles: Equity
Futures Lower As Attention Turns To "Hawkish Fed" Risk
Frontrunning – ZH
Market nerves are still
ragged after the earthquake set off by last week’s ECB meeting as we stare down
no fewer than five central bank meetings this week. First up is tonight’s BoJ
meeting where anticipation of a follow-up policy move has faded.
Crude prices have surged
dramatically from their late-January lows with the net-long position in Brent
crude having reached a record high. Given the state of certain fundamental
drivers however Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen says a downside move looks
likely.
FINLAND
& FINNISH
Fedin
koronnostot jatkuvat kesäkuussa * Tällä viikolla luvassa keskuspankkien
kokouksia * EURUSD ja eurokorot tekivät perjantaina korjausliikkeen alaspäin *
Tervetuloa Nordea Economic Outlook –webinaariin
Rakenteellinen jakovara
pois – SK
Työeläkevarat
eivät ole julkisia varoja sanan varsinaisessa merkityksessä, kirjoittavat Elina
Lepomäki ja Raimo Sailas.