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EUROPE
Dan Steinbock: The End Of Europe As We Know It? – ZH
As the Eurozone is amid
secular stagnation, its old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are
escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen,
anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. Brussels can no longer avoid hard
political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the
euro.
Denmark: Job growth is
strong but GDP growth is very weak, which is a bit of a mystery * Sweden: GDP
growth has surpassed all expectations but there is a limit to how much more
growth domestic demand can support * Norway: Oil slowdown hits Norway hard but
domestic demand keeps wheels spinning * Finland: Reforms should help growth
recover but the near-term outlook is dull
No ‘absurd’ negative
interest rates: ECB board member – Politico
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
El-Erian: Yellen Says
What Markets Want to Hear – View / BB
Kocherlakota: Ask the
Next President About the Fed – View / BB
Is the Fed a
flip-flopping bully or a dynamic dove? – TF
OTHER
EM FX has recovered the
losses from January and February. Momentum has changed and is not negative for
the first time in almost two years. The BRL and the RUB are among the best
performing EM currencies this year. We believe flexible commodity currencies
will outperform. The CEE currencies have also performed decently this year, but
key risks cloud the outlook. The CNY is likely to continue underperforming
slightly, but the real EM troubles of 2016 will be the managed commodity
currencies.
Despite the aggressive
first arrow of monetary policy, Abenomics has so far failed to deliver a
self-sustained growth recovery. We have lowered our growth forecasts for this
year and the next as the outlook remains clouded by external as well as
domestic challenges. With monetary policy becoming less effective and fiscal
policy tightening, structural reforms, especially in the labour market, are
crucial.
REGULARS
German CPI inflation in focus today
* USD weaker across the board after übersoft remarks from Yellen * Very little
progress in Swedish wage negotiations so far
The dollar is taking cover and
nursing its wounds after Fed chair Janet Yellen ended once and for all the talk
of a move in April on interest rates. The dollar is heading for its worst
monthly performance in nearly five years.
When doves fly
Daily Shot – TF
Yesterday's dovish
speech from Federal reserve chair Janet Yellen represents an interesting shuift
in the Fed's perception of its own mandate.
Nearly half of voters
think Cameron should step down if Remain campaign fails * Bank of England warns
EU referendum is the “most significant” short term risk to financial stability
but that banks would be able to withstand Brexit shock * Poles back EU
membership but 50% want restoration of intra-EU border controls * Greek
opposition calls for snap elections as IMF signals potential for some short
term budget flexibility due to migrant crisis * Germany’s populist AfD party
sees drop in support in new Forsa poll * EU-India summit to begin today
India comes to town —
Belgian blame game — Should police have used WhatsApp
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Soar After Yellen
Admits Global Economy Is Much Weaker
Frontrunning – ZH
This morning's trade is
largely a reflection of Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's dovish remarks
yesterday with risk assets soaring as the greenback endures another body blow.
FINLAND
& FINNISH
Norjan
keskuspankki joutuu nollakerhoon * Fedin pääjohtaja Yellen painotti globaaleja
riskejä * Ei hintojen nousua Saksasta * Yellenin varovaiset kommentit ajoivat
dollaria selvästi heikommaksi