Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Hugo Dixon: EU has flaws, but calling it
anti-democratic is falsifying reality – The
Guardian
To suggest that Brussels
engineered the downfall of governments in Italy and Greece is a distortion [but
see also this]
Former BoE chief: Euro depression is
'deliberate' EU choice –
The
Telegraph
Eurozone and Schengen -- Two Parallel Realities,
Crossing in Greece – euinside
Presentation:Weaker euro growth due to external
factors – Danske
Bank
BREXIT
The implications of Brexit for the rest of the
EU – vox
Britain will hold a
referendum on whether to stay or leave the EU. Current polls point a very close
vote. This column argues that Brexit could have serious economic and political
consequences for the rest of the EU. The economic and financial frictions could
be limited if both parties try to strike an amicable separation agreement. But
political considerations, including the desire of the rest of the EU to prevent
Brexit emulation, might result in a far more damaging outcome, not just for the
UK.
Nothing comes for free inside or outside the EU – Open Europe
If Britain leaves the
EU, it is likely that it would need a unique successor arrangement. But there
is no escaping the inevitable trade-offs involved in international
negotiations.
Busting 3 Brexit myths – Politico
Myths: Brexit cannot
happen * Negotiations for a future outside the EU would be relatively painless
* The referendum will settle the question of Europe once and for all
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Regulatory treatment of
sovereign debt: Risk weights vs large exposure limits – vox
Sovereign risk and its
treatment by European banks is a frequently debated topic. In particular,
regulators are focusing on zero risk weighting and large exposure limits. This
column argues that redesigning the macroprudential framework for sovereign risk
management will be a key theme in the years to come. Depending on the exact
outcome, the structure of the EZ bond market might look very different from its
current shape. This could have far-reaching consequences for both the ECB’s
monetary policy strategy and investors alike.
Draghi: ECB to Review Stimulus Amid Heightened
Risks – WSJ
UNITED STATES
Dudley the Dove – Tim
Duy
The Fed will take a pass
on the March meeting. Whether the statement is dovish, neutral, hawkish is the
key question. Dudley opens up the possibility of a not just a neutral
statement, but a dovish one. My sense is that this is shaping up to be a very
contentious meeting as participants struggle with the question of exactly which
data are they dependent upon.
TIPS are pricing the lowest inflation ever – Macro
Man
Fed Increasingly Cornered As ADP Reports
Surprising Beat In Jobs
– ZH
OTHER
Martin Enlund: FX: a bazooka or an ICBM? – Nordea
A plethora of events
have triggered improvements in risk appetite and this at a time when macro
hedge funds are short risky assets. A hawkish Fed could stop the improvement
dead in its track, but not yet. EUR/USD is so far behaving as we hoped, but we
are becoming increasingly nervous about how much is becoming baked in from the
ECB - a bazooka or an ICBM?
Do the Size, Value, and Momentum Factors Exist
in Emerging Markets? – Quantpedia
This paper investigates
the size, value and momentum effects in 18 emerging stock markets during the
period 1990−2013.We find that size and momentum strategies generally fail to
generate superior returns in emerging markets. The value effect exists in all
markets except Brazil, and it is robust to different periods and market
conditions. Value premiums tend to move positively together across different
markets, and such inter-market co-movements increase overtime and during the
global financial crisis.
Are Central Banks Exaggerating Deflation Risks? – Marc
Chandler
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Positive US ISM, Optimism dominates,
Asian markets up * The worst is over in US manufacturing * Core rates edging
higher, periphery lower * Safe haven currencies weaker on Chinese stimulus
Morning Markets – TF
Stocks kicked off March with a bang
in the US and Europe on Tuesday giving a boost to sentiment on Asian bourses on
Wednesday. Talk of a possible fiscal stimulus move gave Japanese share investor
sentiment a boost as well.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Markets Take Another Step Away from
the Edge
Daily Shot – TF
A flood of weak
manufacturing data serves to underline the parlous fragility of the global
economy. That said it's not all gloom a handful of smaller economies including
Poland and Switzerland are chugging along nicely and there's a scattering of
good news too from some pockets of the Emerging Markets bloc
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Lucrative Bonds and
Animated Toes
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Government report: All
existing alternatives to EU membership come with serious risks *
Austria calls for
migrants to be “sent directly” to Germany as Greece becomes new migrant
bottleneck * BlackRock: Brexit “offers a lot of risk with little obvious
reward” * NATO General warns ISIS “spreading like cancer” amongst migrants,
blames Putin for “weaponising” refugees * Heywood: Ministers backing Brexit
will be allowed access to EU documents * Tory party members back Boris Johnson
as next party leader * ECJ puts curbs on Germany’s refugee policy * Commission
to think again on the application of bankers’ bonus cap * Spanish Socialist
leader bound to lose first confidence vote as PP and Podemos officially declare
their ‘No’ * Head of EU Single Resolution Board: It makes “perfect sense” to
cap Eurozone banks’ holdings of sovereign debt * European Commission proposals
could see sharp rise in price of e-cigarettes
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Super Trump-day — ‘Back
to Schengen’ — Brexit divorce scenario
US Open – ZH
Furious Rally Fizzles Overnight As
Futures Follow Oil Lower
Frontrunning – ZH
The USDJPY poked its
head up to two-week highs in the wake of a better-than-expected US ISM
manufacturing survey yesterday as risk appetite stormed back higher. AUD is
riding atop the crest of this new risk-on wave after a strong Q4 GDP print.
Reassuring economic data
from the US and Australia saw investors cast risk-aversion overboard sparking a
"massive" rally in Asian stock markets and boosting the Aussie
dollar.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Kansa
haluaa muutosta – uskottavat vaihtoehdot kuitenkin vähissä * USA:n
tehdasteollisuuden luottamus odotettua parempaa * Kanadan talouskasvu hidastui
odotuksia vähemmän * Etelä-Afrikan talouskasvu pysyy hitaana
Helikopteriraha ei ole QE
kansalle – Roger
Wessman