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EUROPE
The current inefficient
European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that
are more conducive to the two objectives, more transparent, easier to implement
and which have a higher potential to be complied with.
Germany to press for
entry-exit registry in Schengen area – Politico
Corruption costs EU ‘up
to €990 billion a year’ – Politico
Might the Brussels
attacks increase the chance of Brexit? – Open Europe
Molenbeek shows why ISIL
thrives in Europe – Politico
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Three months before the
launch of a revamped lending program, the current platform is seeing poor
takeup
The European Central
Bank’s recent policy moves have shocked many observers. But they are just the
latest in a string of efforts by the ECB to address the fallout of the collapse
of a massive bubble – efforts that have served only to fuel more bubbles.
It is misleading to
argue the recent experiences in the Euro area are having considerable stimulus
effects. In fact, there are many negative consequences, which have only started
to increase. It does not have to be that way.
UNITED STATES
The Fed should be
playing the long game. In my opinion, that means pursuing the “hard”
credibility of choosing the path most likely to meet their mandate over the
long run. This may require sacrificing some “soft” credibility along the way.
Big firms in the United
States have never had it so good. Time for more competition
YELLEN
SPEECH
Janet Yellen: The
Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy – FED
Excerpts from the speech
– Bill Mc Bride
Yellen Crushes Recent
Hawkishness, Unleashes Fresh Bout Of Dovishness – ZH
Yellen Sends Stocks,
Bonds, Gold, Oil Surging – ZH
Yellen: Central bank
should move ‘cautiously’ in raising rates – WaPo
Goldman Sachs: "A
Less Confident Take On Rate Normalization" – ZH
OTHER
Credit booms are not
rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis while
others do not. This column argues that credit booms start with an increase in
productivity, which subsequently falls much faster during ‘bad booms’. When
this decline is severe enough, it changes the informational regime in credit
markets, leading to a drying up of credit. A crisis may be the result of an
exhausted credit boom and not necessarily of a negative productivity shock.
Central banks running
out of fuel, but nobody else can do the job, so central banks due to become
even more unconventional.
Oil prices influencing
inflation expectations? The recent correlation is likely spurious.
The Fed has done its
best to propagate confusion recently. Why the Fed chose to walk the dovish path
in March is crucial for the medium-term outlook for the currency. For now, we
are in the sell-on-rallies camp regarding EUR/USD. Inflation will be higher
than the Fed expects while US growth worries are too elevated.
REGULARS
Yellen and lots of key figures on
this week’s calendar; US data disappointments * German yields heading lower * GBP
with a rebound
It was a mixed day on Asian markets
today. A cautious mood prevailed in Japan where traders will keep a careful eye
on Janet Yellen's speech today. In China the Shanghai Composite lost ground.
Meanwhile the big four banks weighed on Australia's S&P/ASX200; the
benchmark index tumbled 1.57% today.
Is the SPX in a secular bull market?
There is an interesting
and quite clear correlation between US monetary base expansion with the
S&P500 performance. However that does not mean causality. The important
question is where will things go from here? Data from the Wall Street Journal
shows that market participants remain cautious and are buying protection.
Libya warns it will
‘open the floodgates’ unless more support is given to help stem tied of
refugees * Spain warns of consequences for Gibraltar if Britain votes for
Brexit
12 worst Belgian
mistakes — Blame games — Brexit brawls
Futures, Oil Dip On Stronger Dollar
Ahead Of "Hawkish" Yellen Speech
The US dollar managed a
significant comeback rally after the recent dovish FOMC meeting but yesterday’s
soft inflation numbers and the prospects of a dovish Yellen later today have
tamed the US dollar bulls for the moment.
Today will bring fresh
signals from the Federal Reserve as Janet Yellen is giving a speech. It is
widely expected that she will reiterate her dovish stand and markets are set
for this.
FINLAND
& FINNISH
Fed
nostaa korkoja kesäkuussa * Fedin Yellenin tämän päivän kommentteihin
kiinnittyy paljon huomiota * Ruotsin vähittäismyynnin kehitys jatkaa voimakasta
kasvuaan * USA:sta saatiin datapettymyksiä