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EUROPE
MIGRANT
CRISIS
Europe’s Refugee Crisis to Worsen with Spring
Weather – PIIE
A series of EU summits
planned in March must deal urgently with the continent’s migration emergency,
and there are no good options. Two distinct plans have emerged, however: Plan A
The Turkey Choice and Plan B: The Orban Option.
EU nears agreement with Turkey on refugee
returns – Politico
BREXIT
Brexit Scenarios – ABN AMRO
Our base case that the
UK remains is assigned a 65% chance, while we also present four Brexit scenarios…these
depend on how constructive the exit negotiations would be as well as on whether
there is wider contagion with rising fears of more EU exits, that could
re-ignite the euro crisis.
Life after Brexit: The UK’s options outside the
EU – vox
In June, UK voters will
decide whether to remain part of the EU. This column explores the UK’s options
if a majority votes in favour of Brexit. One possibility is for the UK, like
Norway, to join the European Economic Area and thereby retain access to the
European Single Market. An alternative would be to negotiate bilateral treaties
with the EU, as Switzerland has done. All options, however, involve a trade-off
between political sovereignty and economic benefits.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
A proposal for ending the privileges for
sovereign exposures in banking regulation – vox
The excessive exposure
of banks to sovereign debt continues to threaten the stability of the Eurozone.
Based on a recent proposal by the German Council of Economic Experts, this
column suggests steps towards severing the sovereign-bank nexus. The loss-absorption
capacity of banks could be increased through risk-adjusted large exposure
limits and risk-adequate capital requirements.
ECB’s hand may be forced next week – TF
The next ECB meeting to
review monetary policy is on March 10 * The Governing Council relies on
forecasts prepared by ECB staff * The fall in the oil price will affect these
forecasts * A key question is how much further will the inflation projection be
lowered
ECB preview: same player, different target,
shoot again – Pictet
The ECB is facing a
number of political and technical trade-offs. We expect a comprehensive policy
package to be delivered at the 10 March meeting, including some measures
specifically designed to support the banking sector. ECB staff projections will
be revised lower again, partly reflecting concerns over weaker economic
momentum and core inflation. The bigger the ECB’s concerns, the bolder the
policy response.
ECB preview: Time to get creative again – Nordea
More easing at the ECB
meeting on 10 March looks virtually certain, but there is uncertainty regarding
the measures that will be used. For sure, the fundamentals support the case of
further easing and Draghi does not want to repeat the disappointment that took
place after the December meeting. We expect to see a more positive market
response this time although that will be challenging given the high
expectations and the risk that the Governing Council is not ready for any
dramatic moves.
Max McKegg: ECB’s hand may be forced next week – TF
Even Negative Rates Won’t Make German Banks Lend
To Spanish Ones – WSJ
UNITED STATES
FEBRUARY
JOBS REPORT
February Jobs Report:
Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
February Jobs Report –
The Numbers – WSJ
Economists React: ‘Concerns
Over Recession Are Overblown’ – WSJ
The February Jobs Report
in 14 Charts – WSJ
The Jobs Report's Pay
Problem – WSJ
US Jobs Headline Better
than Details – Marc
Chandler
A positive mix for risk
sentiment – Danske
Bank
US payrolls up, wages
down – ABN
AMRO
Payrolls Smash Expectations
– ZH
242,000 Jobs, 4.9%
Unemployment Rate – Bill
McBride
Resilience – no signs of
recession – Nordea
OTHER
Benefits and Costs of Bank Capital – IMF
The Mystery Madoff Victims Who Left $2.5 Billion
on the Table – BB
Offshore feeder funds
account for part of the mystery * Experts speculate some customers sought to
avoid scrutiny
Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Says ‘I’m Not Bearish on
Stocks’ – BB
Ray Dalio: "Don't Trade Against Pros Like
Us, You Will Lose... Own Gold" – ZH
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
How the Jobs Report Could Bring
Forward Rate Expectations
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Stronger CNY, North Korean Nukes on
standby, but all eyes on NFP * Continued healthy employment growth in the US? *
Stronger CNY ahead of National People’s Congress * North Korea has placed
nuclear weapons on standby
Morning Markets – TF
The nonfarm payrolls print later
today is dominating the agenda with a weaker dollar looking towards the pivotal
print for some support. Those with a stake in this week's commodities boost
will hope that the new five-year plan from China this weekend help keeps momentum
bubbling along.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
US Jobs Data Awaited, but Barring
Significant Surprise, May Not be Key Driver
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
Putting it in perspective
Daily Shot – TF
With another ECB meeting
ahead analysts are asking whether there will be enough bonds left for the
expanded QE program - especially in Germany.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Fiduciaries, Vultures and Metrics
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Hollande and Schäuble warn UK’s
single market access could be imperilled by Brexit * Tusk warns economic
migrants “don’t come to Europe” as EU hopes for breakthrough with Turkey * Germany’s
anti-immigration AfD party polls on 19% in upcoming regional election * McDonnell:
Labour will be stepping up its EU campaign in the coming weeks *Juncker:
Ukraine will not join EU or NATO for quarter of century * New report says
proposed EU regulation threatens UK Ports * Switzerland extends free movement
rights to Croatian nationals * Fico likely to win third-term in office
following anti-migrant campaign * Spanish Socialist leader faces second
confidence vote with little hope of being elected PM * Talks between Greece and
its lenders set to resume in Athens next week
Brussels Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls As
Gold Continues Surge After Entering Bear Market
Frontrunning – ZH
EURUSD consolidated to local
resistance levels ahead of 1.1000 before today’s key US jobs data. Elsewhere
commodity currencies are on fire on the resurgent commodities theme. Where does
that leave the USD in these pairs on a particularly strong jobs report today?
The elephant in today's
room is the US nonfarm payrolls print and while leading indicators and Saxo macro
head Mads Koefoed point to the likelihood of a consensus 195000-plus print
equity traders will be looking at wage growth.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Trumbulenssia
ilmassa * USA:n viralliset työllisyysluvut julkaistaan tänään * Eurokorot
pysyvät paineen alla EKP:n kokouksen lähestyessä * USA:n palvelusektorin
työllisyys teki käänteen huonompaan
Eurobarometri Suomi Syksy
2015 – EC
96% haluaa
rajoittaa maahanmuuttoa EU:n ulkopuolelta – Professorin
ajatuksia