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EUROPE
Euro area Outlook: Moderate recovery, plenty of
risks – Nordea
We expect growth to continue
at roughly the recent moderate pace, with private consumption as the main
driver. High debt and unemployment continue to hold growth back while low
inflation will allow the ECB to keep a heavy foot on the accelerator. Downside
risks range from the external environment (including a possible Brexit) to
domestic issues like sentiment being hit by political turbulence.
MIGRANT
CRISIS
EU ready to present
refugee plan to Turkey – Politico
How legal issues
threaten Turkey refugee deal – Politico
EU Risks Showdown With
Turkey Over Halting Flow of Refugees – BB
Turkey demands EU open
new membership ‘chapters’ – Politico
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB’s very attractive TLTRO II loans – Danske
Bank
Bonds: Race against the ECB – Nordea
The ECB’s expanded
stimulus measures will only intensify the race on who will find the bonds with
pick-up, before the ECB tries to take it all away. Euro-area government bond
spreads are set to return to last year’s lows, leaving bonds still with
performance potential from current levels. Irish, Spanish and Italian bonds are
likely to be among the best performers.
Euro area: Cash hoarding? – Nordea
Along the decreasing and
even negative deposit rates, an active discussion has started whether
companies, households and even banks are already hoarding banknotes under the
mattress. What does the available data say about this?
Euro Corporate Watch – How much will the ECB
buy? – ABN
AMRO
We estimate the ECB’s
CSPP programme will reach around EUR 130bn or EUR 10bn per month * For the
smaller universe of iBoxx Non-financials the ECB could buy around EUR 80bn or
EUR 6bn per month in the secondary and primary market combined * We think this
rally still has some legs and spreads could tighten another 10-15 bps before
June
UNITED STATES
US Outlook: Fed to reach both its targets in
2016 – Nordea
Despite a dreary start
to 2016, the US economy is still likely to reach full employment by late summer
this year. By autumn also the Fed’s 2% inflation target is likely to be
reached. We therefore remain confident that the Fed will continue to hike rates
this year. US secular stagnation has become more of a concern. An
inflation-induced repricing of Fed monetary policy expectations is a key
domestic risk. Also the US presidential election implies downside risks to the
economic outlook
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
ECB continues to push yields lower,
FOMC weakens the USD, BoE and SNB on hold * Could 0% rates become a reality for
Norway? * Dollar weakening to levels only observed prior to the December rate
hike * 30-year bund yield drops massively
Morning Markets – TF
US oil benchmark has returned to the
heady heights of the $40/barrel plus zone on the back of the weak dollar.
Japanese exporters meanwhile are crying foul and the Bank of Japan might be
tempted to sharpen its axe.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Trims Losses Ahead of the
Weekend
Daily Market Comment
– Macro Man
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
EU leaders agree to
submit watered-down offer to Turkey * EU leaders welcome forthcoming Commission
plan on VAT flexibility which paves the way for scrapping of ‘tampon tax’ * European
Court of Auditors: EU spending on managing external migration “struggling to
demonstrate its effectiveness” * Bank of England warns EU referendum
uncertainty could delay investment decisions
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Leaders agree Turkey
deal — Saint Mario — Next Door Marine
US Open – ZH
On Opex Day, It's All About The
Dollar: Futures, Oil Levitate As USD Weakness Persists
Frontrunning – ZH
The weakening of the US
dollar on the back of the dovish FOMC shocker on Wednesday stalled late
yesterday and in the Asian session overnight. Looking forward event risks are
few and far between until the week after next.
USD gold and oil are
heading into different directions these days and one should thoroughly
investigate interdependencies before getting invested.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Kuka
pelkää globalisaatiota? * Fedin kyyhkymäinen kokous painoi dollaria edelleen * Korkoleikkuri
heilui Norjan keskuspankissa * Venäjän keskuspankilta on luvassa kevennystä
Saksasta mallia
työmarkkinoille – Roger
Wessman