Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Tyler’s Weekly
Market Wrap
– ZH
Stocks
Surge On Biggest Bear Market Short-Squeeze Since Nov 2008
Succinct summation
of week’s events
– The
Big Picture
5 charts from the
week in markets
– WSJ
[video 48min]
Bloomberg Best: Global Week in Review – BB
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill McBride
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Week
Ahead – ZH
5
Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
Summit
With Turkey, Gazprom, Greece
Week Ahead – BB
China
Congress, Primaries, ECB, Carney
Wall St Week Ahead – Reuters
Stocks
almost erase 2016 losses as bulls charge
Weighing
the Week Ahead: what election means for markets – Dash of Insight
Last week’s economic
calendar was the biggest of the year and this week’s is the lightest. In the absence of important economic news and
earnings, where will financial media turn to fill that space and time? The Presidential election campaign is
providing a lot of zest as well as a little substance. I expect financial
pundits to be asking: What Does the Election Mean for Financial Markets?
EcoWeek – BNP
Paribas
Global Structural policy:
necessary yet difficult - Synergy with monetary and fiscal policies. Positive
impact on potential growth. A slower pace of reforms lately. Germany Inflation back in negative
territory - In February, consumer prices were down by 0.2% from a year earlier.
However, increased labour costs and prices of imported manufactured goods have
kept inflation excluding energy close to 1.2%. France Unemployment declines: the first in a series? - In Q4 2015, France’s
unemployment rate declined slightly, by 0.1 points to 10.3%. This decline could
possibly mark the beginning of the inversion in the unemployment curve.
Weekly Market
Outlook
– Moody’s
Week Ahead: ECB to
deliver – Nordea
Next
week in the Euro area, focus will be on the ECB Governing Council meeting
(Thu). We expect a package of easing measures, strengthening of liquidity
operations, a 2-tier system on reserve interest rates and general soft wording.
In the US, all eyes will be on Fed Vice Chair Fischer's speech (Mon). We'll be
looking for indications about the weight Fischer puts on the recent tightening
in financial conditions. In China, the NPC will reveal its growth targets
(Sat).
Macro Weekly: The
ECB’s March package
– ABN
AMRO
ECB’s
meeting next week will very likely deliver monetary stimulus, but there is
uncertainty about exactly what it will do. Our base case is a 20bp deposit rate
cut coupled by steps to cushion the impact on banks such as a tiered rate
system…and a new long-term loan facility for banks. We also expect an increase
and extension of QE, which should be facilitated by removing the deposit rate
floor for purchases. We think further monetary stimulus is justified and will
have a positive effect, though the ECB needs support from other policymakers.
ECB
meeting on Thursday: deposit rate cut by 10bp to -0.4%, a two-tier deposit rate
system, signaling the deposit rate could go even lower, frontload QE purchases
by EUR20bn per month in spring. Fed speeches on Monday: Vice Chair Stanley
Fischer (voter, neutral) and Lael Brainard (voter, dovish) last ones before the
next FOMC meeting.
Strategy – Danske
Bank
Risk
markets rally on better US data, higher oil price and policy easing * Investors
should consider using rally to buy protection as risks persist * EUR/USD range
bound, German
yields
could decline further
Week Ahead – Handelsbanken
Eurozone:
ECB to deliver another round of stimulus * China: GDP growth target likely to
be lowered at Party Congress * Norway: Regional Network likely will signal zero
growth ahead
UK Week Ahead – Handelsbanken
G10 FX Weekly –
Will the ECB deliver?
– ABN
AMRO
Expectations
of ECB monetary stimulus weigh on the euro. Improvement in sentiment on better
economic data… and expectations of further monetary stimulus (outside US).
Yen’s resilience to be temporary
FX
Outlook – Marc Chandler
Near-term Dollar Outlook
is Nuanced
Speculative Positioning - Marc Chandler
Speculators Add to Short Euro and Sterling
Positions
FX 4 Next Week – TF
Risk
sentiment is back commodity prices are rising and the US economic recovery has
stopped coughing in the night with the latest nonfarm payrolls print showing
242000 new jobs. It's not a familar landscape but in many ways it's a welcome
one.
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
Equities
rose 3% for their third weekly gain in a row, led by small caps and further
gains in oil. SPY has now rallied 10%, back to a level that was major support
throughout most of 2015. It would be easy to say that the rally ends here, but
strong breadth, persistent investor pessimism and strength in other asset
classes suggest that further upside ultimately lies ahead. That said, by the
end of the week, the advance showed several signs of being overextended;
weakness early next week would be normal. In fact, if equities continue with an
uncorrected rally, those gains are likely to be given back in the weeks ahead.