Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Tyler’s Weekly
Market Wrap
– ZH
Fed
Sparks "QE Trade" As Stocks, Bonds, Gold Soar
Succinct summation
of week’s events
– The Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
US
Schedule for Week – Bill McBride
Economic Calendar – Berenberg
5
Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
EU
Week Ahead – WSJ
Week Ahead – BB
U.S. Housing, Apple,
Presidential Race
Wall St Week Ahead – Reuters
Eyes
on the dollar with stocks out of the hole
Weighing
the Week Ahead – Dash of Insight
EcoWeek – BNP
Paribas
Global: First, do
no harm Last
week the ECB shifted its objectives. This week the Fed changed its monetary
policy horizon. Policy coordination in all but name. China: Priority on stabilising growth The government presented its
policy goals for 2016 and the priorities of the 13th Five-Year Plan during the
annual National People's Congress. The economic slowdown deepened in the first
months of the year, and the main short-term priority is to stabilise growth
thanks to new stimulus measures. US: Safety
first The Fed decided to leave rates unchanged, but it actually eased its
policy. Economic data are pretty well oriented, but risks from abroad are
mounting. In the vicinity of the ZLB, the Fed chose not to take the chance. Spain: Deadlocked Spanish political
parties are still struggling to form a new government nearly three months after
the general elections. New elections will be held in late June if Congress
fails to elect a new President of the Government by May 2nd.
Weekly Market
Outlook
– Moody’s
Week Ahead: Fed
back in the spotlight – Nordea
Macro Weekly: The
Fed and the dollarzone – ABN
AMRO
The
Fed kept interest rates on hold this week and revised down its view on the pace
of interest rate hikes going forward. Wage growth has been subdued and demand
has been lacklustre, but crucially the Fed is worried about global
developments. The Fed is the nearest thing we have to a global central bank and
many vulnerable economies around the world are part of the ‘dollarzone’. We
continue to think the Fed rate hike cycle is on pause; meanwhile we have
adjusted our scenario for the ECB and EUR/USD.
Global
central banks have been dovish across the board lately and have provided life
support
to financial markets * Risk markets are getting support from a turn in regional
US business surveys pointing to a lower probability of US recession * The risk
of a systemic crisis has eased, as the ECB has included corporate bonds in the
purchase programme and a dovish Fed is giving support to commodities and
emerging markets * The hunt for yield is set to flatten the euro yield curve * Central
banks have ended the currency war as policy divergence is becoming less.
Strategy – Danske
Bank
Major
central banks have sent a common message of keeping policy rates ‘lower for
longer’ * The coordinated move has supported global risk sentiment amid a still
fragile global recovery * The ECB and Fed’s moves will support risky assets by
the ‘hunt for yield’ * Currencies disobey their central bank masters – we still
look for a higher EUR/USD longer term.
Week
Ahead
– Handelsbanken
Eurozone
PMI to stop declining * Sweden higher sentiment expected in March surveys
FX Weekly: The
dots hit the dollar
– ABN
AMRO
Downward
adjustment in Fed’s dot plot weighed on the dollar… and we have adjusted our
EUR/USD forecast upwards. USD/JPY: Downside risk towards 110. Norges Bank cut
rates as widely expected. EM FX recover after the Fed.
Speculative
Positioning – Marc Chandler
Speculators Pile into
Sterling and Take Profits on Long Aussie Positions
FX
Outlook – Marc Chandler
The Greenback Remains
Technically Vulnerable
FX 4 Next Week – TF
The
most recent FOMC meeting may have given USD longs a start but the consequent
rise in GBPUSD could be growing overextended.
Weekly
Market Summary – The Fat Pitch
Equities rose for a fifth week in a row. In many important ways, the current uptrend does not fit the profile of a bear market rally. That means that further gains lie ahead and a return to the February low is unlikely. On a shorter timeframe, there are several compelling reasons to expect a retracement of recent gains in the days ahead.
Equities rose for a fifth week in a row. In many important ways, the current uptrend does not fit the profile of a bear market rally. That means that further gains lie ahead and a return to the February low is unlikely. On a shorter timeframe, there are several compelling reasons to expect a retracement of recent gains in the days ahead.