Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
U.S.
Jobs, Nuclear Summit, Yellen
Economic
data could put stocks back on higher path
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Jeff
Miller
Can
Markets Finally Celebrate Good News?
Global A mixed picture
keeps central banks in focus: From ‘risk off’ to ‘risk on'. Dovish Fed, for how
long? Eurozone growth looking good. France
A slow but unobstructed recovery: According to our estimates, French growth
will barely accelerate this year and next, with average annual GDP growth of
1.2% in 2016 (the same as in 2015), followed by 1.3% in 2017. There are
numerous supportive factors to boost domestic demand, but they will run up
against the deterioration of the external environment. Netherlands Getting its house in order: In 2016, the Dutch economy
will still benefit from low energy prices and interest rates, and a weak euro,
although to a lesser extent than in 2015. Slower export growth will be offset
by a substantial tax reduction. On balance, GDP growth should remain at around
1.8%.
Eurozone:
Inflation stabilizing * China: MNI indicator points to weak PMI * Sweden:
Retail sales growth to increase in February * Norway: Stable unemployment
survey reading; stable credit growth; contraction in retail sales
There
can be no question about it. Since the financial crisis started in 2007/08, we
have experienced the most spectacular experiment in monetary policy mankind has
ever seen. And as is typical for experiments, the outcome is uncertain. We have
seen unprecedented liquidity support to the financial system, rescue operations
for financial institutions, official interest rates near zero and large-scale
asset purchases by central banks. The latest twist is negative interest rates
and a discussion has started about ‘helicopter money’. How did we get here and
where will we end up?
Commodity
prices have bottomed
The
dollar rally is over in our view. We are more optimistic on commodity
currencies and positive on currencies of oil exporters. However, we expect some
pressure on the yen this year and sterling to weaken ahead of Brexit
referendum. We have kept USD/CNY unchanged as it is in a long-term process to
move to a more flexible regime. We are less negative on Asia FX.
Speculative
Yen Longs Remain Near Record Levels
Greenback
Finds Better Traction
Equities
fell for the first time in six weeks. The intermediate-term uptrend remains healthy,
but some minor short-term weakness has crept in. SPY could be setting up within
a trading range between 200 and 206: fading extremes at these levels is
probably the set up going forward.