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Wednesday, October 5

5th Oct Early - Bank recap rumors


Source: Bespoke
Summary: I’m heading for a job interview in 30 minutes, so no summaries of the links this morning. Last night a guest post by Stratfor, Is Noyer high? getting record views. Another update coming after the European close. If you want a view, deep search or quant work on some topic for free, contact me and spread the word, I'm trying to gain street cred here. Feedback is always appreciated, leave a comment, follow me on Twitter and Facebook, or email me. Buy Aaron Brown's book – and buy another as a gift to me.

Today's Headlines (from Tue) – Between The Hedges
Wednesday Watch (from Tue evening) – Between The Hedges
FX options: Vols, Risk Reversals & Pin Risk – tradingfloor
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Eurozone crisis: live blog – FT
Bloomberg, CNBC etc. television on the web: Livestation



EURO CRISIS
Magical Thinking – The Street Light
Source: Bespoke

What do the EU's finance ministers think will be different one month from now?


Europe - Political Fabrications Instead Of Economic Realities – ZH
Peter Tchir: The latest EFSF “collateral” package shows once again, just how wrong Europe has it…Dreams of Eurobonds…Fantasies of EFSF leverage.

The Euro Zone’s Five Threats – The Source / WSJ
Delayed tranche, revisiting bailout II, revisiting EFSF, more pain, Greek pushback.

Europe’s web of revenue – alphaville / FT
Select slides from Morgan Stanley’s Global Exposure Guide

Moody’s Downgrades Italy By Three Notches – MarketBeat / WSJ

GREECE
The Greek collateral grab — looking a bit bond swap – alphaville / FT

Beginning of the end is near for Greek drama – The Big Picture

Unrest spreads to military as retired Greek officers storm defence ministry – euobserver.com

Europe: Aid to Greece Delayed – Calculated Risk

Greece: Cuts in Public Sector Jobs Is a One-Way Road to Recovery – The Source / WSJ

FINANCIALS
Deutsche Bank Finds Risks in BRIC Banking System, European Sovereign Debt – History Squared
Summary and full scribd link to DB’s research piece

Rise of the central execution desk – alphaville / FT

All For One, And One For All... – ZH
Peter Tchir on Dexia and other European banks

CDS as omens of impending doom: starring Morgan Stanley – alphaville / FT

Morgan Tries to Quell Rumors About Its Holdings – DealBook / NYT

Ka-Pow! Deutsche hit by the VAT man – alphaville / FT

UBS flatters to deceive – alphaville / FT

Banks in Europe Face Huge Losses From Greece – DealBook / NYT

Regulator Seeks Oversight of ‘Cheetah’ Traders – DealBook / NYT

DEXIA
As Predicted On Friday, Dexia CDS Rips And Stock Implodes On Partial Nationalization – ZH
Includes lengthy commentary from Nomura: 

Is the Dexia mess the start of a new financial crisis? – The Curious Capitalist / TIME

Dexia: Here’s Why It Matters – MarketBeat / WSJ
PIIGS debt and too little capital. 518 billion of assets, bailed out by taxpayers in 2008.

France and Belgium to Guarantee Dexia – DealBook

Dexia garantie (encore) – alphaville / FT

Dexia en chute encore, encore – alphaville / FT

(Non) News Of Dexia "Bad Bank" Sends Market Soaring – ZH

Greek crisis close to claiming first victim in EU banking sector – euobserver.com

FINANCIAL CRISIS
Buy back Tuesday? – Macro Man

Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass says “Buy Guns and Gold” – HistorySquared

CHINA
Bank Of America Charts The Four "Crash Landing" Systemic Endgames For China – ZH
Underground lending, property downturn, bad debt/bank recapitalization, hot money outflows.  Scribd-link to full document.

China: the systematic risks – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Full scribd-link to the 42-page research report from 22nd Sep

Bank Of America Charts The Four "Crash Landing" Systemic Endgames For China – ZH

US-China: don’t fear a trade war (yet) – beyondbrics / FT

Hard Landing Is The Central Case, But… – Also Sprach Analyst

Chinese Investment Abroad – ChartPorn

OTHER
Turnkey Research Digest – Turnkey Analyst
Summaries of recent “alpha-generating” research papers.

What Occupy DC wants: Less corporate money in politics – WP
Who are the 99 percent? – WP
Protesters Drawing Labor Support – WSJ