EURO CRISIS
Soros: “Specifically, they are talking about recapitalizing the banking system, rather than guaranteeing it. And they want to do it on a country-by-country basis, rather than on the basis of the eurozone as a whole. There is a good reason for this: Germany does not want to pay for recapitalizing French banks. But, while Chancellor Angela Merkel is justified in insisting on this, it is driving her in the wrong direction.”
We, concerned Europeans – alphaville / FT
A plea to solve the mess now, signed by 96 people including Soros.
A Finnish view on Greek debt losses – alphaville / FT
“did Finland short-change itself by accepting collateral good for only a 40 per cent loss? (At least it’s making plans for default though.)”
Spanish Bank Downgrades Up Pressure on EFSF Expansion – The Source / WSJ
Just in Spain an estimated 30-35 bn of capital is needed by the banks.
Juncker lists 10 steps to stem euro zone crisis – Reuters
From a Handelsblatt interview published today, the points are not that original though.
Taking the stress test to nine – alphaville / FT
The 9% capital requirement mentioned could be based on Basel 2 or 3 Core Tier 1 capital, and the calculation could be before or after sovereign mark-downs. Point is, the 9% alone is a meaningless figure.
EFSF / DEATH STAR II
The fallacy of the ‘big bazooka’ – The A-list / FT
Wolfgang Münchau: “We have reached the end of the line with the present system of a monetary union that refuses to be a fiscal union. We are right at the edge of what is legally, politically and financially possible under the current legal and political structures. That is why the Europeans are tinkering, and not firing. To move, they need a new monetary union.”
First aid is not a cure – Martin Wolf / FT
“at bottom this is far more a balance of payments crisis rooted in financial sector misbehaviour and cumulative divergence in competitiveness, than a fiscal crisis. The architects of the eurozone thought that balance of payments crises were impossible in a currency union. They were wrong.”
The European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism – Also Sprach Analyst
Original source of the “news”, with a full scribd of the Allianz presentation
EFSF – A very European monoline – alphaville / FT
Proposal by Allianz for the EFSF to act as a bond insurer is getting more popular, as it would increase the firepower of the fund from the 440bn to up to 3 trillion. Also, the plan would not be sensitive to the loss of participants’ AAA-credit rating (= France)
Origins of the EFSF monoline plan – alphaville / FT
The Allianz plan was put forth by a small consultancy group nine months ago.
Anomie Watch: EFSF and bailout lawlessness – London Banker
“An obscure leader, Richard Sulik, of an obscure minority party, SaS, objected to impoverishing his already poor countrymen to enrich foreign bankers. Under the terms of EFSF financing, taxpayers in Slovakia - the second poorest nation in the EU - would bear a disproportionate share of the EFSF burden relative to the size of the economy.”
A Standby Program for the Eurozone – Project Syndicate
former IMF chief economist: “Finally, both the EFSF and the ECB ultimately rely on the same eurozone resources for their financial strength. If markets start panicking about large eurozone defaults, they could question whether even a willing Germany has the necessary capacity to support the EFSF-ECB combine. Put differently, these institutions do not offer a credible, non-inflationary, external source of strength.”
Slovak Politicians May Have Best Interests of Voters at Heart – The Source / WSJ
“Some Slovak politicians have argued that it makes no sense for a poorer country like Slovakia to help bail out a richer country like Greece. Moreover, it’s not written in stone that taxpayers should help bail out private-sector investors who have made mistakes.”
To EFSF or not to EFSF – a Franco-German drama – Lighthouse IM
(with simultaneous translation from Euro-lingo into plain English)