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Sunday, June 17

17th Jun - Weekly Previews

Fed- and ECB speeches to fine-tune guidance after last week’s meetings. Germany and Italy main sources of political risks. US-China trade war continues with controlled salvos.

Monday: ECB’s annual conference on central banking begins (till Wednesday)

Tuesday: -

Wednesday: EZ PMI

Thursday: several central bank meetings

Friday: US PMI, OPEC production cut strategy review

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Earnings InsightFactset

US Weekly FundFlows Lipper Alpha
Funds Experience Second Largest Weekly Net Inflows

This Week in EarningsLipper Alpha

S&P 500 Earnings DashboardLipper Alpha

STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook Lipper Alpha

Skilful expectations management meant that the announcement of the end of the net purchases of the QE program didn’t cause any stirs. Markets have applauded the introduction of date and state dependent guidance. In the course of next year, nervousness will increase again as investors will wonder whether conditions are met to warrant a first rate hike in this cycle.

Week in FocusRansquawk
Monday: ECB forum on central banking begins * Thu BoE, SNB, Norges Bank, Banxico central bank meetings, Eurogroup meeting

Week Ahead: The art of trade war Nordea
Trade tensions keeps heating up while other risks subside * Dollar to trigger negative S&P500 earnings revisions * Policy divergence weighing on EUR/USD

Weekly Focus: – Danske Bank

StrategyDanske Bank
A dovish ECB ends tapering and sends EUR and bund yields lower * We now look for four Fed hikes in 2018 following a confident Fed statement and projections * The US is leaving the euro area behind in terms of growth * Risks to global growth are skewed on the downside because of trade friction, Italy and emerging markets * Volatility higher but we expect equities to outperform on a 12-month horizon * There is more downside risk to EUR/USD short term but we still see it being higher in 12 months

Global Week AheadScotiabank

Weekly FX Sentiment ReportScotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s
May’s High-Yield Bond Offerings Plunge as New Loan Programs Soar

Macro WeeklyABN AMRO
Unconventional behaviour US president largely ignored by financial markets * Strong market response to Mario Draghi * Divergence between US and European cyclical indicators continues

Weekly Market CommentMarc Chandler
Renewed Confidence in Divergence

Weekly Macro Comment Marc Chandler
Warning: Treacherous Week Ahead

FX Weekly: Will the stronger USD take its toll on S&P500?Nordea
As 40-50% of S&P500 revenues stem from abroad, the negative translation effects from the recent USD comeback on 2019-20 EPS forecasts will soon show up. This may create some headwinds for risk appetite. We continue to like the USD as a consequence.

G10 FX week ahead: The trade war trap ING
To truly gauge the long-run market impact of the escalating US-China trade war, we need to look at how Trump retaliates to moves by China (either counter-retaliate or take it on the chin). The likelihood of more protectionist threats means that global asset prices will remain stuck in a ‘trade war trap’ and lack any clear direction