Fed- and ECB speeches to fine-tune guidance after last week’s meetings. Germany and Italy main sources of political risks. US-China trade war continues with controlled salvos.
Monday: ECB’s annual conference on central banking begins (till Wednesday)
Tuesday: -
Wednesday:
EZ PMI
Thursday:
several central bank meetings
Friday:
US PMI, OPEC production cut strategy review
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LAST WEEK
Earnings Insight – Factset
US Weekly
FundFlows –
Lipper
Alpha
Funds
Experience Second Largest Weekly Net Inflows
This Week in
Earnings
– Lipper
Alpha
S&P 500
Earnings Dashboard
– Lipper
Alpha
STOXX 600 Earnings
Outlook –
Lipper
Alpha
NEXT WEEK
EcoWeek – BNP
PARIBAS
Skilful
expectations management meant that the announcement of the end of the net
purchases of the QE program didn’t cause any stirs. Markets have applauded the
introduction of date and state dependent guidance. In the course of next year,
nervousness will increase again as investors will wonder whether conditions are
met to warrant a first rate hike in this cycle.
Week in Focus – Ransquawk
Monday:
ECB forum on central banking begins * Thu BoE, SNB, Norges Bank, Banxico
central bank meetings, Eurogroup meeting
Week Ahead: The art
of trade war –
Nordea
Trade
tensions keeps heating up while other risks subside * Dollar to trigger
negative S&P500 earnings revisions * Policy divergence weighing on EUR/USD
Weekly Focus: – Danske
Bank
Strategy – Danske
Bank
A
dovish ECB ends tapering and sends EUR and bund yields lower * We now look for
four Fed hikes in 2018 following a confident Fed statement and projections * The
US is leaving the euro area behind in terms of growth * Risks to global growth
are skewed on the downside because of trade friction, Italy and emerging
markets * Volatility higher but we expect equities to outperform on a 12-month
horizon * There is more downside risk to EUR/USD short term but we still see it
being higher in 12 months
Global Week Ahead – Scotiabank
Weekly FX
Sentiment Report
– Scotiabank
Weekly Market
Outlook
– Moody’s
May’s
High-Yield Bond Offerings Plunge as New Loan Programs Soar
Macro Weekly – ABN
AMRO
Unconventional
behaviour US president largely ignored by financial markets * Strong market
response to Mario Draghi * Divergence between US and European cyclical
indicators continues
Weekly Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Renewed
Confidence in Divergence
Weekly Macro
Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Warning:
Treacherous Week Ahead
FX Weekly: Will the
stronger USD take its toll on S&P500? – Nordea
As
40-50% of S&P500 revenues stem from abroad, the negative translation
effects from the recent USD comeback on 2019-20 EPS forecasts will soon show
up. This may create some headwinds for risk appetite. We continue to like the
USD as a consequence.
G10 FX week ahead:
The trade war trap –
ING
To truly gauge the long-run market impact of the escalating US-China trade war, we need to look at how Trump retaliates to moves by China (either counter-retaliate or take it on the chin). The likelihood of more protectionist threats means that global asset prices will remain stuck in a ‘trade war trap’ and lack any clear direction
To truly gauge the long-run market impact of the escalating US-China trade war, we need to look at how Trump retaliates to moves by China (either counter-retaliate or take it on the chin). The likelihood of more protectionist threats means that global asset prices will remain stuck in a ‘trade war trap’ and lack any clear direction