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Tuesday, June 19

18th Jun - Political risk from Germany

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European recovery is bad news for the world's bond pricesFT
That sucking sound is the retreat of the ECB, says Oxford Economics.

Italy’s Anti-Migrant League Tops Five Star in Poll for First TimeBB
Salvini’s League leads SWG opinion poll with 29.2 percent as coalition partner Five Star drops 2.4 points since vote

Germany: Cruising along, but vulnerable – Danske Bank
The current boom phase still has ‘air to run’ with growth to remain above potential at 2.1% in 2018E and 1.9% in 2019E, before moderating to 1.6% in 2020E.

Merkel Fate Hangs in Balance as CSU Sets DeadlineBB
CSU leader reportedly says he can’t work with Merkel any more * CDU seeking compromise via EU partners, says key Merkel ally

Angela Merkel’s Political Future Is At RiskBB
Chancellor has until June 28-29 EU summit to get European fix * Migration has surged to top of political agenda across Europe

Merkel Accepts Deadline in Coalition Fight Over RefugeesBB
Migration will now top agenda at EU summit on June 28-29 * Merkel adamant in face of Bavarian sister party’s defiance

Migrant crisis sets Merkel a Herculean diplomatic task Handelsblatt
With the migrant crisis stoking tensions in the EU and within her government, Angela Merkel has two weeks to broker complicated compromises. Without a deal, her days as chancellor could be numbered.

Merkel seeks EU crisis talks as migration rocks Berlin coalitionFT
Chancellor seeks to head off split threatening German government

German crisis eases as Merkel strikes deal with CSUFT
Chancellor buys time to seek pan-European solution to refugee crisis at EU summit

Crisis averted? Minister says migrant row with Merkel can be overcomeReuters

Trump Derides German ‘Leadership’ in Slap at EU Migration Crisis BB
Migration will now top agenda at EU summit on June 28-29 * Merkel adamant in face of Bavarian sister party’s defiance

The "Worst Case Scenario": A 10% Tariff On All US Imports & Exports Would Slash S&P EPS By 11% - ZH

What could trigger a Fed pause?ABN AMRO
The most likely driver of a pause would be a decline in business confidence on the back of trade tensions. There is scant evidence of this as yet. Other potential triggers include renewed and successive undershoots of inflation (à la 2017), an accelerated flattening in the yield curve, or an escalation of EM stress to a broader crisis

The Fed steams ahead, regardlessPictet
A Fed that has been raising rates because of solid domestic data lies behind the dollar’s strength—but for how long can the Fed stay oblivious to an increasingly fragile global picture?

JPM: "The Global Bond Curve Just Inverted" ZH

Goldman Co-Head Of Trading  Worried The Market May Break And Not Snap BackZH

Editorial: Maybe the Big Four Auditing Firms Do Need to Be Broken UpBB
But first let's see if the current rules can be made to work.

Next Move Is Trump's After China Hits Back in Trade-War OpenerBB
China turns tables on import pledges, hitting U.S. commodities * Analysts say Trump’s strategy on China tech rise won’t work

Pressure is rising in US-China tradePictet
The US will hit USD34 billion (out of a total of USD500 billion) of imports from China with a 25% trade tariff, effective 6 July.

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

Market Briefing: Daily Markets OverviewYardeni Research

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Banks’ record payouts, Colombia election, visualising blockchain

Slower Earnings Threaten Bull Market, Steep Oil and Strong Dollar Spell Pain

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Politics and Economics Weigh on European Currencies

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel’s crunch time — Commission gives the finger on Selmayrgate — What’s next for Poland

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Global Stocks, Futures Tumble On Trade War, Merkel Shock; Oil Volatile Ahead Of Meeting

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Trumpin tullipäätökset ylläpitävät kauppasodan uhkaa, EU ja Kiina vastaamassa tulleihin? | Loppuviikko sisältää useita keskuspankkikokouksia | Tuottavatko euroalueen ostopäällikköluvut jälleen pettymyksen perjantaina?