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Saturday, July 7

6th Jul - US "goldilocks" jobs report

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The roles of economic integration and monetary policy in currency unionsvoxeu
A key critique of commonly used macroeconomic models is their reliance on the assumption of rational expectations. This column addresses this concern with a model of currency unions wherein expectations are formed through behavioural reinforcement learning, that is, learning from past mistakes. The model suggests that economic integration is of crucial importance to the functioning of a currency union. Monetary policy, in contrast, can only play a limited stabilising role.

June saw a halt to recent declines in euro area business sentiment survey – Pictet
Early signs of trough in Europe – ABN AMRO

July Macro UpdateThe Fat Pitch
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The largest risk to the economy is the escalation in trade war rhetoric.

Strong Job Creation, but Disappointing Earnings Growth – Marc Chandler
Payrolls Rise 213,000; Wage Gains Slow, Unemployment Up – BB
June Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
The June Jobs Report in 8 Charts – WSJ
Payrolls +213K But Hourly Earnings Disappoint Again – ZH
'Goldilocks' Jobs Print Sparks Dollar Dump, Bond & Stock Buying – ZH
Where The Jobs Were In June: Who's Hiring And Who Isn't – ZH
Participation Rate Emerges as Fed's Big Job-Market Mystery – BB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Tariffs enforced, Chequered Brexit, Europe’s beer crisis

US-China Trade War Begins, Saudi Aramco IPO In Doubt

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Slips After Tariffs and Before Jobs Data

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Austrian diplomacy — Brexit crunch time (again) — NATO’s present to Trump

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Volatile Markets On Edge As Trade War Begins Amid Confusion

USA:n tuontitullit kiinalaisille tuotteille astuivat voimaan, Kiina vastaa samalla mitalla | Tänään luvassa USA:n kesäkuun työmarkkinaraportti | Fedin kesäkuun kokouksen pöytäkirja ei tarjonnut yllätyksiä