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Thursday, July 18

18th Jul - #4140

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Stronger legal framework is not enough to foster national compliance
In 2011, the EU introduced stricter rules to monitor the implementation of country-specific policy recommendations. Using a new dataset, this column investigates whether these new laws have increased national compliance. There is no evidence that these stricter processes matter for implementation rates, whereas macroeconomic fundamentals and market pressure are important determinants of implementation progress.

Merkel and Macron Carried Off Their Trick, Barely BB
Ursula von der Leyen won the presidency of the European Commission, but faces a bumpy road ahead.

Deutsche Bank Still Faces an $83 Billion Question BB
The ECB is right to support the German giant’s downsizing plan, but it will need to keep a close eye on the sale of assets from Deutsche’s “bad bank.”

Angela Merkel’s Chosen Successor Goes All InBB
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s decision to take on the defense portfolio is a high-stakes political gamble.

Macroprudential policy at the ECBECB
Institutional framework, strategy, analytical tools and policies

Phillips curves in the euro areaECB
The Phillips curve is still a valid policy instrument once it is robustly estimated

Why the Fed will still cut, despite stronger dataABN AMRO
Rate cuts are about risk management, not current conditions

Rebalancing the Global Economy: Some Progress but Challenges AheadIMF

Trump's Tariff Deal Comes Down to a Coin FlipBB
A German minister puts the chances of an EU-U.S. agreement at 50%. Others are even more optimistic, though the scope of a deal would be limited.

China Is the Biggest Protectionist ThreatBB
Even before Trump, the country was pursuing a go-it-alone economic strategy that had little use for trade.

Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Eco Day AsiaBB
Fed's Happy Outlook, China Balanced, Top Central Banks * Indonesia’s finger is on rate trigger ahead of key Fed meeting * Terms of Trade: U.S.-Japan talks set to heat up and get messy

Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
Europeans line up candidates to lead the IMF: Powerful emerging economies want to break Europe's stranglehold on the institution

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
What’s next for Ursula — What’s next for Margaritis — Salvini’s miracle

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Eco Day EuropeBB
BOE Losing Faith, South Korea Cuts, Trade Impasse * Indonesian central bank set to cut rates to ward off headwinds * Employment jumped and labor force swelled in Australia

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

European Stocks, US Futures Rebound After ECB Said To Revamp Inflation Goal

Eco Day USBB
Fed Splinter, ECB Studies Revamp, Brexit Recession Risk * A July rate cut could end Powell’s record-breaking Fed unity * U.K. faces recession in no-deal Brexit, fiscal watchdog warns

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Optimismi nopean ratkaisun suhteen kauppasodassa on viime päivinä hälventynyt | Euroalueen kesäkuun inflaatiota tarkistettiin kymmenyksellä ylöspäin | Tänään julkaistaan Philadelphian teollisuuden luottamusindeksi