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Monday, July 1

1st Jul - Weekly Previews #4124


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World Economy WeekBB
U.S. Payrolls to Provide Signpost for Fed * Trade war, manufacturing data will also shape investor outlook


Take Five: Markets themes for the week aheadReuters
Six-month run in the markets * EU leader selection * US jobs report * Opec * Bitcoin and Facebook crypto

Key events in developed markets next weekING
The fall-out from the Trump-Xi meeting will set the mood for this week which combined with the multitude of US data releases should aid to evaluate the possibility of a rate cut in July.  The UK's PMIs and the Riksbank meeting should also both signal that a hike in 2019 is unlikely

EcoweekBNP PARIBAS
France and Germany: Very different cyclical slowdowns

Global Week Ahead Scotiabank
US payrolls, ISM manufacturing * Asian data and reaction to Trump-Xi * EU leader selection *

Week AheadNordea
A tech cold war is likely to keep building independent of the G20 summit, which is why trade is only one of several conflicts and maybe the least scary. In Sweden, the Riksbank may start to sound worried about a renewed policy race towards the bottom

Weekly FocusDanske Bank
Trump-Xi meeting * US jobs report and ISM data * A new attempt to agree on the EU top jobs *
PMI data from China * Dovish shift from the major central banks, Swedish Riksbank under pressure on Tuesday.

Macro WeeklyABN AMRO
We expect the ECB to cut rates deeper into negative territory, to -0.6% * The key limiting factor is adverse effects on the banking system, which could lead eventually to lower interest rates being counter-productive * Further room for rate cuts limited, asset purchases will remain the main policy tool

China WeeklyDanske Bank
A ceasefire tomorrow is widely expected but the path to a trade deal is likely to be rocky. Renewed escalation in H2 is still a risk if both sides stand firm. * Markets are caught between the threat of escalation and belief in a trade deal. * There are still no signs of a hard landing in China, with profits rising 1.1% y/y in May.

Weekly Market CommentMarc Chandler
Melodrama Subsides but Capriciousness Remains

FX WeeklyNordea
The absolute madman didn’t blow up the G-20 summit, but there are still plenty of unresolved US/Chinese issues. Powell seems extremely keen on “sustaining the expansion” which could hint of deep upcoming cuts. Long EUR/USD should continue to work.

Week aheadFT
European Parliament, Greece election, US jobs data