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World
Economy Week
– BB
U.S.
Payrolls to Provide Signpost for Fed * Trade war, manufacturing data will also
shape investor outlook
Take
Five: Markets themes for the week ahead – Reuters
Six-month
run in the markets * EU leader selection * US jobs report * Opec * Bitcoin and
Facebook crypto
Key
events in developed markets next week – ING
The
fall-out from the Trump-Xi meeting will set the mood for this week which
combined with the multitude of US data releases should aid to evaluate the
possibility of a rate cut in July. The
UK's PMIs and the Riksbank meeting should also both signal that a hike in 2019
is unlikely
Ecoweek– BNP
PARIBAS
France
and Germany: Very different cyclical slowdowns
Global
Week Ahead –
Scotiabank
US
payrolls, ISM manufacturing * Asian data and reaction to Trump-Xi * EU leader
selection *
Week
Ahead
– Nordea
A
tech cold war is likely to keep building independent of the G20 summit, which
is why trade is only one of several conflicts and maybe the least scary. In
Sweden, the Riksbank may start to sound worried about a renewed policy race
towards the bottom
Weekly
Focus
– Danske
Bank
Trump-Xi
meeting * US jobs report and ISM data * A new attempt to agree on the EU top
jobs *
PMI
data from China * Dovish shift from the major central banks, Swedish Riksbank under
pressure on Tuesday.
Macro
Weekly
– ABN
AMRO
We
expect the ECB to cut rates deeper into negative territory, to -0.6% * The key
limiting factor is adverse effects on the banking system, which could lead
eventually to lower interest rates being counter-productive * Further room for rate
cuts limited, asset purchases will remain the main policy tool
China
Weekly
– Danske
Bank
A
ceasefire tomorrow is widely expected but the path to a trade deal is likely to
be rocky. Renewed escalation in H2 is still a risk if both sides stand firm. * Markets
are caught between the threat of escalation and belief in a trade deal. * There
are still no signs of a hard landing in China, with profits rising 1.1% y/y in
May.
Weekly
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Melodrama
Subsides but Capriciousness Remains
FX
Weekly
– Nordea
The
absolute madman didn’t blow up the G-20 summit, but there are still plenty of
unresolved US/Chinese issues. Powell seems extremely keen on “sustaining the
expansion” which could hint of deep upcoming cuts. Long EUR/USD should continue
to work.
Week
ahead
– FT
European Parliament, Greece election, US
jobs data