EUROPE
When
The ECB Restarts QE, This Is What It Will Buy – ZH
What
the ECB Didn’t Say About Monte Paschi’s Bailout – BB
An
internal ECB document puts the official account of the Italian bank’s rescue in
doubt. Investors need transparency.
The
Minor Mystery of the Euro’s Trade Effect – Prime
Economics
Eurozone
inflation remains stable as ECB prepares fresh stimulus – ING
As
expected, core inflation bounced back after the weak May reading, but this does
not seem to be the start of faster price growth
UNITED STATES
The
Fed Typically Kills Expansions. Now It Must Save This Record Upswing – BB
The
central bank is on the spot as downside economic risks accumulate.
OTHER
Annual
Economic Report – BIS
ASIA
US-China Trade – Danske Bank
US-China Trade – Danske Bank
As
widely expected, the Xi-Trump meeting ended with a ceasefire in the trade war.
The export ban on Huawei was also lifted, at least partially.
Economists
Are Skeptical That Trump-Xi Truce Will Rescue Growth – BB
Research
notes reveal analyst skepticism of thawing after G-20 * Global trade, growth
data to remain weak in 2019, they write
G20:
Many bridges to cross before a US-China deal can be cut – ING
The
new cease-fire and a resumption of negotiations between the US and China keep
hopes alive that a long-running trade war can be avoided. But more is needed
before we can change our expectations that another round of tariffs is coming
Could
have been worse - G20 does not end in acrimony at least – ING
We
didn't have high expectations for the G20 meetings. What we got was
realistically about as good as we thought likely. Markets seem to agree, with a
modest relief rally in equities and some safe-haven selling. Other Asian
currencies rallying.
G20: The US and China buying time – Nordea
Trump and Xi agreed to continue the trade
negotiations and no additional tariffs are expected in the coming months. The
uncertainty, however, continues to prevail. The lukewarm result was widely
expected in the markets prior to the meeting.
Editorial:
The U.S. and China Don’t Need to Be Enemies – BB
A
peaceful, productive relationship is crucial for the world.
Asia's
factory activity shrinks, U.S.-China trade truce fails to brighten outlook – Reuters
Asia
Factory Sentiment Dealt a Blow in June as Trade War Simmers – BB
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing –
FT
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
Circular
EU jobs summit keeps Timmermans’ hopes alive: The Dutch commissioner engages in
furious one-to-one diplomacy to win over his sceptics
Brussels
Edition
– BB
Between
Osaka and a Hard Place
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Red
eyes at the summit — Schulz speaks — Small step for Trump
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
We
are starting the week with a host of PMI manufacturing releases, which will
give an indication of where the global manufacturing cycle is heading amid the
uncertainty prompted by the trade stand-off between the US and China. Markets
will also keep an eye on the aftermath of the trade ceasefire over the weekend.
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
PMIs
Spoil Truce Party, China Pain, Savior-Villain Fed * Economists stare down
darker global growth even amid ‘truce’ * Asian factory sentiment broadly turns
down for another month
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Trade
Optimism Meet Reality of Disappointing PMI
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
Global
Stocks Soar On Trade Truce, As Other Assets Get Cold Feet
Eco
Day US
– BB
Savior-Villain
Fed, Global Factory Slump, Trade Truce * Economists see darker global growth
even with ceasefire * Clarida says Fed will ‘act as appropriate’ to sustain
growth
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Presidentit Trump ja Xi pistivät kauppasodan tauolle ja
neuvottelut jatkuvat, vaikeita asioita sovittavana | Kiinan tehdasteollisuuden
toiminta supistui kesäkuussa | Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden
ISM-ostopäällikköindeksi kesäkuulta
Varallisuusvero takaisin? – Akateeminen talousblogi
Rahapolitiikan edellytykset muuttumassa? – Peter
Nyberg