The
October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away. The new Prime Minister is beginning to
convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.
Euro
area: Weak growth not enough to lift inflation – Nordea
While
Euro-area GDP continues to grow, the pace of growth is not enough to lift
inflation to the ECB’s target. The ECB increasingly realizes this and prepares
to launch new easing measures in September.
Euro Area Macro Monitor – Danske
Bank
Symmetry
in ECB's target, asymmetry in PMIs
Data
adds to the case for ECB action in September – Pictet
The
euro area economy grew by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1. While 0.2% is
still a decent pace of growth, concerns about the economy in the second half of
the year have increased.
UNITED STATES
ISM
comment: Weaker than expected – Nordea
The
ISM manufacturing index dropped to 51.2 from 51.7 and was somewhat weaker than
expected. The details however gives hope for a stabilization in the near term.
Fed
Watch: First cut in a decade – Nordea
The
Fed delivered a 25bp rate cut, an early end to QT and stands ready to act as
appropriate to sustain the expansion. More rate cuts will follow, but the Fed
does not see this as the start of a prolonged rate cutting cycle.
FOMC
review
– Danske
Bank
'Mid-cycle
adjustment' without pre-commitment
The
Fed’s pre-emptive strike – ING
We
characterise this 25 bps rate cut as an early pre-emptive move to help ensure
the longest US economic expansion on record continues. It will likely ease
again, but not by as much as the market is pricing
The
Fed just made us even dumber – Scott
Sumner
The
Fed cut rates by only 0.25%, which looks like a mistake.
A
disappointing press conference – Scott
Sumner
Stocks
moved sharply lower on the disappointing forward guidance, which suggested “one
and done”, and then recovered a bit when Powell clarified his remarks. I
The
Fed Nailed It, Even If Markets Disagree – BB
Powell
isn’t responding to a global crisis, just a slowdown. One or two reductions is
appropriate.
Markets
Remind the Fed That It Can't Win – BB
Hours
after delivering the desired rate cut, the central bank faced new pressure from
markets and the president. What they want, the Fed can’t give.
Powell’s
swerves muddy the outlook on US rates – FT
OTHER
Monthly
Executive Briefing –
Danske
Bank
Markets
disappointed by the lack of action from the ECB and the lack of pre-commitment
from the Fed * The global manufacturing cycle had a weak start to Q3 * No-deal
Brexit talk stepped up under new PM Boris Johnson * EU Game of Thrones
concluded with two women taking over at the ECB and EU Commission
Trade talks: Tariff threat has not
subsided –
ING
No
signs of real progress have come out of trade talks between the US and China
which means a new round of tariffs is still looming
Trump
to hit $300bn in Chinese goods with 10% tariff – FT
Stocks
and Treasury yields fall after latest escalation in trade war with Beijing
Negative
yields are nuts, when’s the crash? – FT
Outside
the US, the debt market is officially bonkers.
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
Eco
Day Asia
– BB
Powell
‘Let Us Down,’ China's Gen Z, Quantified Easing * Wrongfooted by Fed, world’s
few hawks now stuck with low rates * China, U.S. plan next round of trade talks
for early September
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing
– FT
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Operation
Sell No Deal — A haircut’s more fun than a lecture — The world according to
Rome
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
Fed
1990s Throwback, BOE Rates Day, Trade Drama Spreads * Powell pledge for
mini-cycle on rate cuts is like Fed of old * U.S., China to meet again soon;
Japan-South Korea heating up
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Mid-Course
Correction Sends Greenback Higher
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
Eco
Day US
– BB
Fed
1990s Throwback, Argentina’s Curse, Factory Pain * Powell suggests Fed
embarking on 1990s-style mini easing cycle * Factories from Asia to Europe
become of trade-war casualties
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fed toimitti
odotetusti 25 korkopisteen leikkauksen ja lopetti QT:n, markkinoille lievä
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