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Wednesday, August 7

7th Aug - Base building or bear pause? #4155


I'm on Twitter.


EUROPE
Germany Targeted Far-Right Violence With Laws. It Wasn't Enough.
– BB
The German experience suggests gun control and tough laws on hate speech only goes so far.

Italy’s Trump Is All Bark and No Bite – BB
Salvini has secured new powers targeting migrants but failed to deliver on his populist economic agenda.


UNITED STATES
President Trump and the Fed - we’ve changed our view – ING
President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed to support his efforts on extracting concessions from China on trade. Policymakers appear reluctant, but market moves and other central bank actions look set to give them a nudge. This is why we think it looks increasingly likely that the Fed will step in with two 25bp cuts in September and December

Trade and the Fed – John Cochrane
Fed should ease on demand shocks, not on supply shocks

The Fed’s Job Is to Protect the Economy, Even From Trump – BB
The bank has to cut rates not to support the president’s policies but to contain their damage.


OTHER
Yes, the Dollar is Above CNY7.0, but No, the Sky is Not Falling – Marc Chandler

Trump Sets Trap for China, Steps in It – BB
His escalations make it harder for Xi to cut a face-saving deal.


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB

Eco Day Asia – BB
U.S. Intervention, China Reassures on Yuan, Trump vs Xi * India and Philippines likely to cut rates as Thailand waits * Three Gorges has nothing on China-backed dam to power Africa

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Migration red flag — What France wants — Sticking it to the Dutch

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eco Day Europe – BB
Few Lessons for U.K., German Pain, RBNZ's Steep Cut * No easy way to cushion the U.K. economy in no-deal Brexit * New Zealand shocks with 50bps cut, Asian peers may also ease

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Three Asian Central Banks Surprise Investors

Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

Eco Day US – BB
Recession Risk, Trump’s Big Bet, Policy Surprises * World economy edges closer to recession as trade fears spiral * Central banks shock with cuts in global race to the bottom


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Uuden-Seelannin keskuspankki (RBNZ) yllätti agressiivisella 50 korkopisteen laskulla | Ruotsin yrityssektorin tuotanto supistui 0,2 prosenttia kesäkuussa | Tänään julkaistaan kesäkuun teollisuustuotannon luvut Saksasta