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Sunday, August 4

4th Aug - Weekly Previews #4152

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World Economy WeekBB
It Was the Week Trade Wars Went From Uncomfortable to Scary * Beijing pledges to counter Trump’s threat of more U.S. tariffs * Japan-South Korea feud boils over amid trade actions, protests

World Economy Week AheadBB
The Trade War Isn’t Taking a Summer Break * Australia, India, New Zealand central banks set interest rates

Weekly Market Wrap BB
Stocks Suffer Worst Week of Year on Trade, Fed * China vows to retaliate on any new U.S. actions; dollar lower * Oil rebounds from Thursday plunge; two-year Treasury gains

Five market themes for the week aheadReuters
Trade war whiplash * Bond bonanza * Follow the Fed? * Tale of two economies * Not so sterling

Key events in developed markets next weekING
Amid a quiet week in US markets, keep an eye out for fireworks from the dollar bloc central banks, as well as some particularly volatile UK growth numbers

Global Week AheadScotiabank
US: Trump’s threat to impose a 10% additional tariff on the remaining US$300 billion of non-tariffed imports from China with an escalator feature thereafter. Retaliation risk and informing prospects for going ahead with the next planned round of trade negotiations in September * Euro area: How did Germany’s industrial and export complex end Q2? June releases for factory orders (Tue), industrial production (Wed) and trade (Fri) * Asia: Four central banks will deliver policy decisions, three update inflation readings, three update GDP growth signals and China releases a wave of macro readings

Week AheadNordea
The Fed thinks the economy is mid-cycle, the market certainly doesn’t agree and wants more candy. We bet that the Fed will lag the markets, unless a pronounced comeback in sentiment surveys unfolds over the coming couple of quarters.

Macro WeeklyABN AMRO
Further escalation trade conflict is big risk to the global economy * Eurozone GDP growth halves * Chinese PMIs up a little while manufacturing globally remains under pressure

China WeeklyDanske Bank
A trade deal keeps moving further away, as Trump ends ceasefire after a month and threatens with even more tariffs * Chinese data points to stabilisation at a low level, more stimulus coming after trade war escalation * China's new tech board STAR got off to a strong start

Asia week aheadING
Central bank policy meetings dominate next week’s Asian economic calendar. Some of them have signalled a pause in easing, some are continuing to cut rates further, and some are likely to embark on that path. GDP and trade releases are the other highlights, while China’s monthly data dump begins

Key events in EMEA and Latam next weekING
It's a data-packed week in EMEA. Russian CPI could signal a rate cut in September while in Romania, the central bank is likely to stay on hold

Government bonds weeklyDanske Bank
We are now past the big central bank meetings this week and last week and the central bank direction for the autumn has now been set. For us the conclusion is clear: more of the same. The hunt for carry, or rather struggle to avoid negative yields, will continue unabated.

Weekly Market CommentMarc Chandler
The Dog Days of August are Upon Us

FX WeeklyNordea 

Trump probably knows that an escalation of the tariff-war is the easiest way to force the Fed in to deep cuts, which is an issue for the ECB and BoJ as well. BoJ seems paralyzed by the situation, which makes JPY a decent bet. Scandis suffer.