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Thursday, July 14

14th Jul - BoE does nothing

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Euroscepticism on the riseABN AMRO

Anders Borg: The Federalist Threat to EuropeProject Syndicate

Sweden: housing market continues to coolNordea
Sweden: I never dreamed you’d leave in summerNordea

The Italian bank crisis – the one graph version Lars Christensen

ECB preview – bond scarcity is not the only challengeNordea
The UK’s vote to leave the EU can mean a lot for the ECB. A deterioration of the economic outlook could warrant more easing at some point but more immediately, the decline in bond yields makes the current purchasing targets impossible to achieve. We expect no new policy measures from the meeting on 21 July but we look for hints about how the ECB might tweak the QE parameters. Another headache for the ECB are the reborn worries over the health of the banking system.

This Bundless world facing the ECBFT
ECB’s purchase programmes are running out of bonds to buy. Here’s what could be done.

Editorial: History Should Vindicate David Cameron – View / BB
Everything you need to know about Theresa May’s new cabinet – Politico
Brussels Briefing: The Brexit Team – FT
The Case for Muddling Through Brexit – Project Syndicate

Carney Opens Lehman Playbook at Bank of England – BB
BOE Surprises by Doing Nothing, but Tips August Action – Marc Chandler
Sterling Jumps As Bank Of England Disappoints – ZH
BoE to ease aggressively in August – ABN AMRO
Pound Surges as BOE Holds Policy in First Decision Since Brexit – BB
Bank of England Signals August Stimulus as Rate Kept at 0.5% - BB
BoE surprises markets by keeping rates on hold, signals August move – Reuters
Bank of England holds rates despite Brexit concerns – FT
U.K.'s Outlook Has Changed. The BoE Hasn't (Yet) – View / BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Equities flat, oil and bond yields lower ahead of BoE * BoE: some easing now, and some later
25bp cut for today priced in – yet not certain * No change from BoE to strengthen GBP

Morning MarketsTF
Europe's leading bourses are expected to open narrowly mixed today on the heels of a cautious Asian session with the focus firmly fixed on the land of Brexit as Britain wakes to the first full day in office of its second ever female prime minister.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Will BOE Ease on May Day?

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
The dream team

Daily Market CommentPolemic’s Pains
Markets. Where physics meets psychology

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Theresa May appoints senior Leave campaigners to key Cabinet posts, tells European leaders UK “needs some time” to prepare for EU exit talks * New poll finds public believes maintaining single market access should be priority in Brexit talks * Bundesbank warns UK is likely to lose ability to clear euros in the medium term * Economists for Brexit call for unilateral free trade and points-based immigration system in response to leaving the EU * German Defence Minister says Brexit is opportunity to integrate EU military cooperation * Labour leadership challenger: UK public should get vote on EU exit deal * Bank of England expected to cut rates to 0.25% in response to Brexit * Spain makes one last bid to avoid EU fine for excessive deficit * Concern over large international banks being overly pessimistic in wake of Brexit * Brexit seen exacerbating existing slowdown in housing demand * New figures: Over two million migrants came to Germany in 2015 * Commission unveils EU asylum reform proposals with cash incentive for resettling refugees * France calls on Barroso to ditch job at Goldman Sachs * China-EU summit focused on market economy status and steel issues

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Commission power matrix — Promo for BoJo — CoiffeurGate

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher As More Details Emerge About Japan's "Helicopter Money"


FX UpdateTF
The Bank of England is likely to cut rates today and to hint that it will do anything necessary to support the economy after the Brexit shock. Elsewhere the kiwi is on the ropes as AUDNZD and NZDUSD show signs of reversing.

From the Floor TF
The yen continues its downward course as Tokyo mulls its stimulus options including a perpetual bond issue. Meanwhile expectations for Apple's quarterly earnings are faltering as signs of a continued slowdown emerge.

Englannin keskuspankki keventää tänään rahapolitiikkaa * Kiinan pankkisektorin ongelmat vielä hoidettavissa * Teollisuustuotanto supistui euroalueella odotettua enemmän * Kiinan toisen neljänneksen BKT-luvut julkaistaan aikaisin perjantaina