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Monday, July 25

25th Jul - Quiet beginning of a busy week

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Germany's Misunderstood 'Terror Crisis'View / BB

Juncker came to Turkey’s defense after failed coupPolitico

Slovenia and the banks – Frances Coppola
The Failure of Europe's Stress Tests – View / BB
With Italy's Bank Stress Test "A Near-Term Risk", Who Is Most Exposed? – ZH
Financials Watch – Italian Banks Q & A – ABN AMRO
How much money could be made to disappear in Italy’s bank bailout? – Wolf Street
First Italy, Now Portuguese Banks "Unexpectedly" Need A Taxpayer Bailout – ZH
European Bank Stress Test: Preview – Marc Chandler

EU considers migration ‘emergency brake’ for UK for up to seven years – The Guardian
EU Considers Migration ‘Emergency Brake’ for U.K., Observer Says – BB
Meet the Brexit Negotiators: Veterans of Europe’s Backroom Wars – BB
Triggering Article 50: When Will Brexit Talks Begin? – BB

What the Fed Will and Won't Do this Week – View / BB
The Fed Has Some Explaining to Do – View / BB
FOMC Preview: No hike, but possibly preparing for a September hike – Bill McBride

BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of JulyMarc Chandler

With Kuroda Under Pressure To Increase Stimulus Again, Dissenters AppearZH

My Investing MentorsMichael Batnick

MiB: Market Wizard Jack SchwagerBarry Ritholz

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: central bank 'put', off?Nordea
Markets expect too much from central banks? It's not just whether they can - but if they will. The USD is bid as economic uncertainty is high...while Fed hike may be repriced again on domestic data alone.

G20 finance ministers pledge closer collaboration on tax evasion –
Brexit heightens global economic risks, says G20 – BBC
G20 ready to take action to support economic growth – Politico
G-20 Pledges to Use All Tools to Fight Weak Global Recovery – BB
Rock-bottom rates creates fiscal space for G20: OECD – Reuters
G20 will use 'all policy tools' to lift growth as Brexit weighs – Reuters
G-20 Meeting Ends With Rising Discord Between China And US – ZH
G20 debating greater global coordination, but can it deliver? – TF

Danske DailyDanske Bank

FOMC, BoJ and GDP data this week * Euro area rates sold off on back of better than expected PMIs while the GBP lost on weak PMIs

Morning MarketsTF
A rally in Asia-Pacific stock markets on Monday lost steam towards the end of the session though the dollar stayed firm.
Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Big Week Begins Slowly

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Monday morning bullet points

Daily ShotTF
Roughly a month after the Brexit vote in the UK one can say that the Eurozone reacted "surprisingly resilient" to the yes vote while data for the UK shows negative signals.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Backbenchers unconvinced by beefed up ‘emergency brake’ on EU migration to stay in single market * BBC: Cameron made last-ditch appeal to Merkel over free movement * Big asset managers suffer billions of withdrawals following Brexit vote * Germany rocked by terror attack committed by failed Syrian asylum seeker * Sturgeon sets out five key tests for post-Brexit UK-EU deal * Hammond seeks to assuage G20 concerns over Brexit as he strikes optimistic tone on future UK trade deals

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Commission names and shames — Merkel, untouched — No. 10 Drab Street

US Futures Unchanged As Europe Stocks Rise; Strong Dollar Pressures Oil


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar has rallied fairly robustly into this week with EURUSD ending last week below 1.1000 for the first weekly close below that level since February. The Fed meeting mid-week is a test for whether the USD rally can intensify or whether the dollar stays stuck in the quiet after the Brexit storm.

From the FloorTF
The coming days will see more than 700 companies reporting. Among them is Nintendo which faces huge demand for its Pokémon Go app but has dampened expectations of the financial impact of the game. The Fed is likely to issue a slighlty hawkish message at its Wednesday FOMC says Saxo's John J Hardy.

Fed seuraa markkinaepävarmuuden ja inflaation kehittymistä * Britannian yritysten luottamus laski roimasti, Saksa ja Ranska yllättivät positiivisesti * Perjantaina Japanin keskuspankin odotetaan laskevan korkotasoa *​ Tällä viikolla julkaistaan USA:n, euroalueen ja Ruotsin toisen neljänneksen BKT-luvut

Ajatuksia taloustieteen rajamaistaPeter Nyberg

Eduskuntavaalitutkimus 2015: Poliittisen osallistumisen eriytyminenOikeusministeriö