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Friday, July 8

8th Jul - US payrolls surge

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Juncker wants Schulz to stay as Parliament presidentPolitico
Euro Area Article IV – IMF
Euro Area At The Crossroads: No Time For Complacency – IMF
IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation on Euro Area Policies – IMF
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues – IMF

Disunited Kingdom Disinclined to Reverse Brexit – PIIE
Brexit’s Political Risks Overwhelm Economic Analysis – PIIE
Editorial: The Bank of England Makes a Capital Mistake – View / BB

June Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
June Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
The June Jobs Report in 15 Charts – WSJ
Jobs Report and Implications – Marc Chandler
Jobs growth rebounded but Fed still in 'wait and see' mode – Danske Bank

Employment Soars By 287K, Smashing Expectations, Highest Since October – ZH
Stocks Jump; Bonds, Bullion Dump As Rate-Hike Odds Rise On Payrolls – ZH
Yields Tumble, Curve Flattens As Hilsenrath Hints At September Hike – ZH
Employment Situation Report is a Monthly Statistics Lesson – Barry Ritholtz
+287,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride

A Strong Report following a Weak Report – Bill McBride
Economists React to the June Jobs Report: ‘Christmas in July’ – WSJ
Strong comeback - jobs report review – Nordea

Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks Marc Chandler

Danske DailyDanske Bank

US oil stocks sink sentiment, can todays US jobs report reverse this? * Expect solid US payrolls * US and German yields largely unchanged lining up for US payrolls *NOK hit by high US oil stockpiles, watch out for Swedish household consumption

Morning Markets TF
Friday is a bumper day for economic releases chief among them the eagerly awaited US nonfarm payrolls numbers. But though a feeling of cautious optimism prevails this is tinged with nervous memories of last month's very poor show.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
US Jobs Data, Little Policy Significance, but may Provide Distraction ahead of the Weekend,

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Osborne joins with investment banks to reiterate commitment to City of London despite Brexit *
Obama: Special relationship between US and UK will endure * Handelsblatt: Juncker is no longer the right man to lead the European Commission * Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom to face Tory members in run-off to determine who will take over as Prime Minister * Belgian PM: I won’t accept having to pay the bill for Brexit * UK Government to start preliminary talks over bilateral free trade deal with India * Brexit vote sees increased support for EU in Germany * Corbyn wants new relationship with EU that maintains economic ties but loosens state aid restrictions * Hammond suggests informal talks needed between UK and EU to guarantee rights of migrants on either side * EU Commission starts formal process to fine Spain and Portugal for excessive deficit * ECB minutes show concerns over negative spill-overs from Brexit * UK in talks about giving up rotating EU Presidency in 2017

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
NATO summit — Poland’s powerholic — Gove gone

US Open ZH
US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls


FX Update TF
After a weak May jobs report the market is expecting some mean reversion in the data series meaning that we may need to see a very strong set of June numbers to shift Fed rate expectations and the US dollar.

From the Floor TF
Deutsche Bank's gloom is worsening as its subordinated CDS hits an all-tiime high as the fallout from Brexit reverberates through the European banking sector.

Japanin vaaleissa mitataan Aben(omicsin) kannatus * USA:n yksityisen sektorin työpaikkoja syntyi odotettua enemmän * Tänään julkaistavien USA:n työllisyyslukujen odotetaan olevan vahvat *​ Punta toipui maltillisesti pohjatasoltaan

Pankkiunioni on kylvänyt Euroopan seuraavan kriisin siemenetAntti Ronkainen