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Monday, July 18

18th Jul - Post-Turkey

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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If Spain didn’t need capital controls, why would anyone?FT

Why Italy's banking crisis will shake the eurozone to its coreThe Telegraph

Britain’s long and difficult divorce from Europe – BlackRock
Squaring the Circle: Can Article 7 be Used to Force Article 50? – Marc Chandler

Turkish Currency, ETF Fall on Coup Attempt – WSJ
3000 detained as PM hails country under “complete control” – FT
Turkey’s feckless plotters – Politico
Erdogan Vows to Punish Rebels as Leaders Say Coup Foiled – BB
Turkey’s coup, explained in under 500 words – vox
Turkey’s Failed Coup: Economists and Strategists React – WSJ
Erdogan's Opportunity After the Coup – View / BB
Some Thoughts on Turkey – Marc Chandler

Data Dump Tim Duy
Generally solid data sufficient to keep the prospect of a rate hike or two alive for this year. But soft or mixed enough on key points to lean policy closer to the former than the latter.

FX: cautious Nordea
Have equity Markets gone too far, too fast? Maybe. Lack of positive drivers short term is a risk. EUR not a "safe haven" as used to be, USD prevails.  GBP, AUD exposed, while JPY may get stronger before resuming weakening.

Week AheadMarc Chandler
EMU Returns to Center Stage in the Week Ahead

Danske DailyDanske Bank

China housing cools, May may wait, No coup for you * Turkish coup attempt triggered risk-off moves * British PM May awaiting “UK approach” until Article 50 * JPY weakened most since 1999 last week
Morning MarketsTF
This week starts in the shadow of both Friday's terrorist attack on France and the Turkish coup attempt. Ankara however was able to retake control of the country and this has erased 80% of the sudden spike seen in USDTRY in the immediate wake of the coup.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Coup in Turkey Repulsed, Risk-Appetites Return

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Difficult times in Turkey

Daily Market CommentPolemic’s Pains
Turkey. Markets think it’s all over. It certainly is not.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Brexit Minister Davis suggests new EU migrants could be sent home * Fox aims for dozen new trade deals with non-EU countries to come into effect on 1 January 2019 * EU Commission Vice-President: Too early to say whether City will lose dominant role in euro clearing business * EU fears crackdown by Erdoğan in wake of botched coup attempt * Italian Europe Minister expresses preference for Norway-style UK-EU relationship after Brexit * Sturgeon: Scotland is in a very, very strong position in intra-UK Brexit talks * Majority of people do not want a second referendum on Brexit deal * Johnson: UK will retain leading role in European co-operation * Brexit will make NHS safer says President of RCS

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Turkey’s Reichstag fire — Milk money — Juncker tax jam

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A


FX UpdateTF
Markets have stabilsed again after a late Friday dip on news of the attempted coup in Turkey. Attention turns today to a BoE speaker discussing the Brexit's effect on monetary policy and later this week to the ECB and Europe's banks.

From the FloorTF
Last week's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates steady saw the GBP spike from its post-Brexit range but there is little doubt that stimulus is forthcoming – the question is what form it will take.

EKP:n nykyiset ostot tulevat tiensä päähän * Vallankaappausyritys lisää epävarmuutta Turkin markkinoilla *​ USA:n kesäkuun vähittäismyynti yllätti positiivisesti * Saksan 10 vuoden valtionlainakorko nousi nollan yläpuolelle