Google Analytics

Friday, January 13

13th Jan - Good and expected US data

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

ECB preview: IntermissionNordea
Minutes on the ECB December meeting confirmed the ECB is not close to scaling bond purchases further and thus did not give reasons to change our ECB expectations. Looking to next week’s meeting, risks are tilted towards a hawkish market reaction.

ECB preview: still dovish despite better data – Danske Bank
We do not expect a hawkish stance from the ECB, although the latest economic survey indicators have strengthened further and inf lation has risen above 1.0% for the first time in three years.

Draghi’s Inflation Upturn Reopens Divergences Across Region BB
Consumer prices rising at the fastest annual pace since 2013 * Impact on consumers depends on wage bargaining power

European Elections Test ECB President Mario DraghiWSJ
Politicians in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands—which all face general elections this year—have recently stepped up attacks on ECB

ECB Stimulus Disagreements Signal Vigorous Debates AheadBB

Germany's Schaeuble urges ECB to start unwinding stimulus this yearReuters

Yellen Sees No Serious Short-Term Obstacles for U.S. Economy – BB
Says inflation “pretty close” to Fed’s 2 percent target, doesn’t want to see banking regulations rolled back

Stephen Pope: Perplexed over presidential policy TF
Small businesses hoping president Trump will address their needs * Scarcely a shred of detail has been offered as to economic policy * Theoretical model shows Trump will rely on the Fed

The Reversal in the Trump Trade Isn’t Hitting Inflation ExpectationsWSJ

BofA 'Icarus' Trade: "A Wobble Then A Melt-Up... Followed By A Melt-Down"ZH

Fed ‘may be in better position’ to reduce balance sheet, Bullard says MarketWatch

U.S. Retail Sales Picked Up in December on Motor Vehicle Demand – BB
Here come retail sales ... – BI
Retail Sales increased 0.6% in December – Bill McBride
Core Retail Sales Growth Weakest In Almost 3 Years – ZH
Retail Sales: December Growth Improvement – dshort
Strong auto demand buoys retail sales, producer prices up – Reuters
Core PPI Comes Hotter Than Expected – ZH
December Producer Price Index: Final Demand Increased 0.3% - dshort
Consumer Confidence Disappoints As Trump Hope Dips – ZH

BofA Revenue Misses Estimates as Bond Trading Ebbs at Year-End – BB
Bank of America profits surge on cost cuts, trading gains – Reuters
BofA Misses Revenues, EPS Beats On Accelerated Expense Reductions – ZH
JPMorgan results trump estimates as election stimulates trading – Reuters
JPM Earnings Jump On Slashed Expenses – ZH
Wells Fargo reports fifth straight decline in profit – Reuters

Davos Wonders If It’s Part of the ProblemBB
Did the global elite’s devotion to borderless capitalism sow the seeds of a populist backlash?

The sterling 'flash event' of 7 October 2016 – BIS
GBP flash crash had no single driver, no data to suggest market abuse – Reuters

China Credit Growth Exceeds Estimates as Lending Remains Robust – BB
PBOC Said to Boost Yuan Curbs as Banks Told to Balance Flows – BB
China’s Exports Remain Tepid as Trump Trade Challenge Looms – BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Swedish inflation just below target; US retail sales today; Falling Chinese exports * Most important today: US retail sales * USD profit-taking continued * Trump’s news conference set the tone for bonds yesterday

Morning MarketsTF
European equities are likely to open mildly softer on the back of a narrowly mixed Asian session and a weaker Wall Street on Thursday. But trading may be thin on the last day of what has been a nervous and cautious week in which sentiment was blighted by worries about the Trump presidency which in turn sent the US dollar sharply lower.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Corrective Forces Persist

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Fiat defends itself * PBOC balancing act * Yellen bullish? * Markets rise * Big data day

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

US OpenZH 
Futures Rise On Friday 13th Ahead Of Deluge Of Bank Earnings; Dollar Continues To Decline

FX UpdateTF
The last days of 2016 and first couple of weeks of this year have felt like one long Friday the 13th for currency traders as exchange rates have reversed against former trends or churned viciously both ways especially in the case of EURUSD. Next week the action is likely to remain intense as May will speak on Brexit Draghi will speak at Thursday’s ECB meeting and Donald Trump will speak as President on Friday.

Markkinat heräävät Trump-humusta * Odotamme USA:n vähittäismyynnin palanneen joulukuussa vahvalle kasvu-uralle * Yellen toiveikas Yhdysvaltain talouden kehittymisestä * Ruotsin joulukuun inflaatio ylitti odotukset

Pääministeri, johtamisen taakka ja kanan pahnatJ.S. Hankamäki