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Monday, January 30

30th Jan - Trump's visa ban mayhem

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Schäuble says German migration policy was a mistakePolitico

Euro Crisis Memories Rattle Markets, Defy ConfidenceBB
Bond yields jump from France to Greece on political concerns * Quickening German inflation also raises doubts on ECB support

Draghi’s Right, It’s Too Early to Start the Euro Inflation PartyBB
Euro inflation forwards may have rallied too far, too soon * Core prices still low, headline HICP rising on base effect

German Pride Shifts to Anger in Role as Europe’s ReflatorBB
Inflation surge triggering pushback against ECB policies * Monday data show Saxony, Hesse, NRW with price growth above 2%

German inflation pick-up unsettles euro zone bond markets Reuters

IMF Warns Eurogroup Loan Measures Not Enough for Greek DebtBB
Greek debt is highly unsustainable; measures not specific * Debt will jump as high as 275 percent of GDP by 2060

Pressure on Greece Mounts, New Crisis LoomsMarc Chandler

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Hits Highest Since 2011 – BB
Editorial: Can Trump Win Friends and Influence People? – BB
View: Trump Avoids Making a Trade Promise He Can't Keep – BB
Worstall: Untruths About Brexit, Trade Deals and Article 50 – Forbes

U.S. consumer spending, housing data bolster economic outlook – Reuters
FOMC Preview
Tim Duy
At this point I still do not anticipate a March hike. And note that a March move doesn’t guarantee a faster pace of rate hikes; it could be largely pre-emptive, just displacing a subsequent rate hike. But if they could justify a March move and you were anticipating two to three rate hikes this year, you should probably be thinking of three to four. Not to mention some action on the balance sheet added to the mix.

Tim Duy: Alarm Over the Fed's Balance Sheet Is SillyBB

Trump Era May Mean Fireworks on Fed Days Despite Better GuidanceBB
FOMC was getting more predictable prior to December meeting * Meetings without Yellen briefings are increasingly in play

Thoughts about the Fed's Balance SheetMarc Chandler

Trump bars Syrian refugees, halts entry of citizens from some Muslim states – Politico
Journalists Look Awkward in the 'Opposition Party' – BB
Consumer Confidence is Rising… But Not If You’re A Democrat – WSJ
Trading Trump – Macro Man
View: Trump's Immigration Order Unleashed a Policy Disaster – BB
Trump’s Next Immigration Move to Hit Closer to Home for Tech – BB
Seven Inconvenient Facts About Trump’s Refugee Actions – Breitbart
Trump Pledges ‘Big Number’ on Dodd-Frank – BB
View: The Growing Burden of the 'Trump Tax' – BB
Trump immigration order causes alarm among EuropeansPolitico

Goldman Sachs: The Case For A Higher VIXZH
Fear Is Back as VIX Rises Most Since SeptemberWSJ

El-Erian: Central Banks Will Keep Policies Unchanged -- for NowBB
The central bank meetings this week are unlikely to be major market movers. Like the rest of us, the four institutions will be trying to determine whether, how and when other policy-making entities are likely to influence the economic and financial outlook.

FX: Killing it softlyNordea
Trump is moving in the wrong direction, and with the US data surprise index turning, this is not helpful for the USD. BoE Inflation Report adjustments to support the GBP, while the euro area inflation to put taper in focus...

Macro Monday: Get fired up for year of the fire roosterTF
Equities are powering ahead around the globe but it would be a mistake to focus on the Dow breaking through the 20000 points lvel as this was just another number. And Trump is shaking things up with import taxes the border wall and immigration. Nevertheless everyone should look forward to the year of the fire rooster.

Trump rows back on travel ban, a left turn for French socialists and the benefits of being difficult at work


Danske DailyDanske Bank

Eyes on inflation and bond supply * Busy week ahead for data and events * Continued large Euro area supply will keep yields elevated * Weak GDP data and US politics leave mixed impact on USD

Morning MarketsTF
The dollar was on the slide overnight as Donald Trump's highly-controversial immigration ban on citizens from seven countries sparked a rise in safe-haven buying that could gather pace until the dust settles.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Active Stocks and Bonds Contrasts with Subdued FX

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos


Trumpia ja rahapolitiikkaa * Saksassa julkaistaan tänään tammikuun alustavat inflaatioluvut * Tällä viikolla luvassa USA:n, Japanin ja Englannin keskuspankkien korkopäätökset * Perjantaina julkaistaan USA:n tammikuun työllisyysraportti

Trumpin käännytyspolitiikka ampuu alas kaksoiskansalaisuudet – Jukka Hankamäki
Trump-uutisointi luotettavaa kuin kreikkalainen kirjanpitäjä – Jukka Hankamäki

Brysselin kone: Vapaakauppasopimukset, protektionismi ja EUYLE
Vaikka Trumpin valinta on nostanut esiin keskustelun siitä, ollaanko nyt maailmassa siirtymässä protektionismin aikaan kansainvälisessä kaupassa, niin on syytä muistaa, että myös EU on toiminut ja toimii kansainvälisessä kaupassa huomattavan protektionistisesti. Mutta miten EU, jonka kauppapolitiikkaa usein sanotaan sen kruununjalokiveksi, suhtautuu vapaakauppaan ja protektionismiin. Haastateltavana on kansainvälisen talouden professori Pertti Haaparanta Aalto-yliopistosta.

Brysselin kone: Miten EU:ta kannattaisi kehittääYLE
Miten huono Suomen kilpailukyky palkkojen suhteen verrattuna esimerkiksi Ruotsiin ja Saksaan ja mitkä sellaiset asiat, joista EU voi päättää, vaikuttavat siihen, miten maan taloudella menee. Tästä puhuu erikoistutkija Pekka Sauramo Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta. Lisäksi hän puhuu siitä, että kun tämä nykyinen sukupolvi loi paljon huolia aiheuttaneen rahaliitto EMU:n, niin onko oikein, että EMU:n mahdollisen purkamisen huolet jäävät tulevien sukupolvien huoleksi. Kannattaisiko ja pitäisikö meidän kokoontua yhteen ja purkaa EMU ja siis lopettaa euron käyttö?