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EUROPE
Euro Crisis Memories Rattle Markets, Defy
Confidence – BB
Bond yields jump from
France to Greece on political concerns * Quickening German inflation also
raises doubts on ECB support
Draghi’s Right, It’s Too Early to Start the Euro
Inflation Party – BB
Euro inflation forwards
may have rallied too far, too soon * Core prices still low, headline HICP
rising on base effect
Inflation surge
triggering pushback against ECB policies * Monday data show Saxony, Hesse, NRW
with price growth above 2%
German inflation pick-up unsettles euro zone bond markets – Reuters
Greek debt is highly
unsustainable; measures not specific * Debt will jump as high as 275 percent of
GDP by 2060
Pressure on Greece Mounts, New Crisis Looms – Marc
Chandler
Euro-Area Economic
Confidence Hits Highest Since 2011 – BB
UNITED
KINGDOM
Editorial: Can Trump Win
Friends and Influence People? – BB
View: Trump Avoids
Making a Trade Promise He Can't Keep – BB
Worstall: Untruths About
Brexit, Trade Deals and Article 50 – Forbes
UNITED STATES
U.S. consumer spending,
housing data bolster economic outlook – Reuters
FEDERAL RESERVE
FOMC Preview – Tim Duy
FOMC Preview – Tim Duy
At this point I still do
not anticipate a March hike. And note that a March move doesn’t guarantee a
faster pace of rate hikes; it could be largely pre-emptive, just displacing a
subsequent rate hike. But if they could justify a March move and you were anticipating
two to three rate hikes this year, you should probably be thinking of three to
four. Not to mention some action on the balance sheet added to the mix.
Tim Duy: Alarm Over the Fed's Balance Sheet Is Silly – BB
FOMC was getting more
predictable prior to December meeting * Meetings without Yellen briefings are
increasingly in play
Thoughts about the Fed's Balance Sheet – Marc
Chandler
TRUMP
Trump bars Syrian
refugees, halts entry of citizens from some Muslim states – Politico
Journalists Look Awkward
in the 'Opposition Party' – BB
Consumer Confidence is
Rising… But Not If You’re A Democrat – WSJ
Trading Trump – Macro Man
View: Trump's
Immigration Order Unleashed a Policy Disaster – BB
Trump’s Next Immigration
Move to Hit Closer to Home for Tech – BB
Seven Inconvenient Facts
About Trump’s Refugee Actions – Breitbart
Trump Pledges ‘Big
Number’ on Dodd-Frank – BB
View: The Growing Burden
of the 'Trump Tax' – BB
Trump immigration order causes alarm among
Europeans –Politico
OTHER
Goldman Sachs: The Case
For A Higher VIX – ZH
Fear Is Back as VIX
Rises Most Since September – WSJ
The central bank meetings this week are unlikely to be major market
movers. Like the rest of us, the four institutions will be trying to determine
whether, how and when other policy-making entities are likely to influence the
economic and financial outlook.
Trump is moving in the wrong direction, and with the US data surprise
index turning, this is not helpful for the USD. BoE Inflation Report
adjustments to support the GBP, while the euro area inflation to put taper in
focus...
REGULARS
Equities are powering ahead around the globe but it would be a mistake to
focus on the Dow breaking through the 20000 points lvel as this was just
another number. And Trump is shaking things up with import taxes the border
wall and immigration. Nevertheless everyone should look forward to the year of
the fire rooster.
Trump rows back on travel ban, a
left turn for French socialists and the benefits of being difficult at work
Eyes on inflation and bond supply * Busy
week ahead for data and events * Continued large Euro area supply will keep
yields elevated * Weak GDP data and US politics leave mixed impact on USD
The dollar was on the slide
overnight as Donald Trump's highly-controversial immigration ban on citizens
from seven countries sparked a rise in safe-haven buying that could gather pace
until the dust settles.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Active Stocks and Bonds Contrasts
with Subdued FX
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US
Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos
Frontrunning
– ZH
FINNISH
Trumpia ja rahapolitiikkaa * Saksassa julkaistaan tänään
tammikuun alustavat inflaatioluvut * Tällä viikolla luvassa USA:n, Japanin ja
Englannin keskuspankkien korkopäätökset * Perjantaina julkaistaan USA:n
tammikuun työllisyysraportti
Trumpin käännytyspolitiikka ampuu alas
kaksoiskansalaisuudet – Jukka Hankamäki
Trump-uutisointi luotettavaa kuin kreikkalainen
kirjanpitäjä – Jukka Hankamäki
Brysselin kone:
Vapaakauppasopimukset, protektionismi ja EU – YLE
Vaikka Trumpin valinta on nostanut esiin keskustelun
siitä, ollaanko nyt maailmassa siirtymässä protektionismin aikaan
kansainvälisessä kaupassa, niin on syytä muistaa, että myös EU on toiminut ja
toimii kansainvälisessä kaupassa huomattavan protektionistisesti. Mutta miten
EU, jonka kauppapolitiikkaa usein sanotaan sen kruununjalokiveksi, suhtautuu
vapaakauppaan ja protektionismiin. Haastateltavana on kansainvälisen talouden
professori Pertti Haaparanta Aalto-yliopistosta.
Brysselin kone: Miten EU:ta kannattaisi kehittää – YLE
Miten huono Suomen kilpailukyky palkkojen suhteen
verrattuna esimerkiksi Ruotsiin ja Saksaan ja mitkä sellaiset asiat, joista EU
voi päättää, vaikuttavat siihen, miten maan taloudella menee. Tästä puhuu
erikoistutkija Pekka Sauramo Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta. Lisäksi hän
puhuu siitä, että kun tämä nykyinen sukupolvi loi paljon huolia aiheuttaneen
rahaliitto EMU:n, niin onko oikein, että EMU:n mahdollisen purkamisen huolet
jäävät tulevien sukupolvien huoleksi. Kannattaisiko ja pitäisikö meidän
kokoontua yhteen ja purkaa EMU ja siis lopettaa euron käyttö?