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Monday, January 23

23rd Jan - Trump ends TTP, reflation trade in trouble

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Risk sharing across the US and Eurozone: The role of public institutionsVOX
The US achieves more intensive risk sharing largely because of a more integrated financial market, and also that the contribution of public institutions to risk sharing is much higher in the Eurozone than in the US. The reason why the Eurozone needs more fiscal transfers to withstand idiosyncratic shocks is not because these institutions should do more to improve risk sharing, but because delegation of risk sharing to national governments threatens the stability of the currency union.

A New Deal to Save EuropeProject Syndicate
Yanis Varoufakis: In the wake of the euro crisis, Europeans shudder at the thought of giving the EU more power over their lives and communities. That's why an alternative to EU leaders' push for European federalism must be found.

Friedman & Shapiro: Europe - The Process of Change ContinuesMauldin
Italian crisis * German exports * Security

Pound bulls emboldened as sterling advances to one-month high – BB
UK economy probably ended year on a high ahead of weaker 2017 – BB
Mark Gilbert: The U.K.'s Threat to Weaponize Tax Is No Bluff – BB
Why Brexit court case won’t change much – Politico
May Plans Short Brexit Bill If Supreme Court Rules Against Her – BB
Theresa May outlines plans to boost British industry – Politico

CEOs Counsel Taking Trump Seriously, But Not Literally BB
CEOs say they can persuade Trump to drop campaign pledges * ‘If he knows the facts, he’ll respond according to the facts’

Companies Can’t Stop Talking About the Strong Dollar – WSJ
How a Strong Dollar Weighs on Net Exports – Marc Chandler

How to work in the new administration when you don’t agree with Trump – Reuters
Cass Sunstein: Why Trump's First 50 Days Are Decisive – BB
Trump's Plans for Spending Spook Foreign Bond Buyers – BB
Trump signs order to withdraw from Trans-Pacific trade deal – Politico
Trump Revamps Trade Focus by Pulling Out of Pacific Deal – BB
Trump pulls out of Pacific trade deal, loosening Asia ties – Reuters
Trump Promises Business Leaders Major Border Tax, Rule Cuts – BB
Canada Signals Possible U.S. Trade Deal That Excludes Mexico – BB
Doubt whether Trump Can Turn His Promises Into Policy – BB
Highlights: Donald Trump in first full week as U.S. president – Reuters

COT: Bullish commodity bets highest since June 2014 – TF
COT: Dollar sold ahead of ECB, Trump inauguration – TF

Macro Monday: Go for gold but watch USD long term – TF
UK court ruling on Brexit will be important for sterling * Citi index shows that inflation is grinding higher everywhere * In the short term gold rules, but USD will again have its day

How The Bull Market Could End According To Credit Suisse

QuantamentalMacro Man
(chart overview – drivers look toppish)

Equity Generalists Increasingly Uncomfortable With Reflation Trades – ZH

Attacking economics is a diversionary tacticSimon Wren-Lewis

Satyajit Das: Why Inflation Won't LastBB

[video] Conversation With George Soros at Davos BB / Youtube

Noah Smith: Why the U.S. Has a Monopoly on Jobless Recoveries - BB

New eBook: The Long Economic and Political Shadow of HistoryVOX
Over the past decades, economists working on growth have ‘rediscovered’ the importance of history, leading to the emergence of a vibrant, far-reaching inter-disciplinary stream of work.  This column introduces a new eBook in three volumes which examines key themes in this emergent literature and discusses the impact they have on our understanding of the long-run influence of historical events on current economics.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Signs of solid growth in the US and Europe? * Long end swap rates continue to be impacted by ESM * Scandi currencies rose on increased risk sentiment

Morning MarketsTF
We've had a weekend to digest Trump's inauguration speech and while the new president has put in motion a raft of executive orders pulling back on much of Obama's legacy the failure to elaborate on his plans for a $1 trillion stimulus package has sent dollar into a downward spiral.

From the FloorTF
US president Donald Trump delivered a strongly nationalist inaugural address Friday, reinvigorating fears of protectionism that led to the dollar selling off versus its G10 rivals.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar's Pre-Weekend Retreat Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Dollar falls * Treasury showdown * OPEC shrugs off Trump * Markets slip * Big Brexit week

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

Futures, Dollar Slide; European Stocks At 3-Week Lows As "Trump Reality Sets In"


FX UpdateTF
The market felt that US president Donald Trump’s hostile protectionist inaugural address was more cause for unease and uncertainty triggering a bond market rally and a further slide in the US dollar particularly USDJPY which remains the highest beta play on USD direction.

Tällä viikolla julkaistaan USA:n ja Ison-Britannian vuoden 2016 viimeisen neljänneksen BKT-luvut * Odotamme euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksien nousseen entisestään joulukuussa * Markkinoiden reaktio Trumpin virkaanastujaispuheeseen oli hillitty

Martti Hetemäki: Työllisyys ja julkinen talousVM
Pohjoismaisen hyvinvointimallin rahoitus perustuu korkeaan työllisyysasteeseen. Suomessa työllisyysaste jäänyt selvästi jälkeen muista Pohjoismaista.  Nykykehityksen jatkuessa palvelujen ja etuuksien rahoitus ajautuu umpikujaan