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Tuesday, January 17

17th Jan - May said Hard Brexit

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January 2017 euro area bank lending survey – ECB

Europe’s message to Theresa May: Play by the rules — or else – Politico
May Ready to Announce Britain Will Leave EU Single Market – BB
PM May indicates Britain will seek 'hard Brexit' in EU talks –
Britain will leave EU single market, May says – Reuters
British PM May sets out plans for Brexit – Reuters
Factbox: Britain's Brexit negotiation objectives – Reuters
MPs will get a vote on final Brexit deal – Politico
Sterling on course for best day since 2008 after May speech –
Pound Set for Best Day Since 2008 After May’s Statement – BB
Brexit Monitor # 21 – Danske Bank
May showed the government has a plan – Open Europe

Editorial: Trump's Trade Plan Is a Looming Disaster – BB
Why is Trump picking on Merkel? – Politico
View: Trump's Rejection of the EU Could Make It Stronger – BB

Sleuthing for Fed Dots Hints at Yellen Plotting Three ‘17 Hikes – BB
What Fed policymakers say about possible Trump fiscal stimulus – Brookings

FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank  
The Trump moment

Bonds: ECB goes below the deposit rateNordea
The ECB bought its first bonds below the deposit rate this morning according to Reuters. Unsurprisingly, the BuBa is reported to be the first in line with purchases below the deposit rate. Consequently, ECB embarked on a whole new, yet expected, path

Japan Economic Outlook: No self-sustained recoveryNordea
Despite solid growth momentum last year, a clouded outlook for domestic and external demand makes it hard to meet Abenomics’ ambitious targets. The economy will continue to rely on monetary and fiscal stimuli while reforms progress slowly.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016 IMF
Tax capacity and growth – is there a tipping point? * US shale revoluation and its spillover effects on the global economy * Relationship between country finance and governance

[73 min audio] Brett Steenbarger, Trading Coach PsychologistBB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

May may make it or break it today - May’s speech, Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the GBP * UK inflation * ECB Bank Lending Survey * ECB buys below the deposit rate

Morning MarketsTF
Sterling rebounded from its 30-year lows against the dollar in Asian trade this morning ahead of UK prime minister Theresa May's landmark Brexit speech later today. According to UK media the PM will present a 12-point "wish list" for her country's negotiations with the EU and will also state her intention to go for a "clean break".

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Trump's Comments Send the Dollar Reeling

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Theresa May: UK doesn’t want an EU relationship that “leaves us half-in, half-out” *
Ministers planning for work permit and visa waiver schemes for EU citizens post-Brexit * IMF upgrades UK growth outlook for 2017 but tempers 2018 view * City minister ‘confident’ UK can keep euro clearing post-Brexit * Schäuble: London as a financial centre will play an important role for Europe even after Brexit * Moscovici: The idea that Brexit is contagious is fantasy * Head of CBI stresses risk to the UK economy of “disorderly” Brexit * European Parliament to elect a new President as Martin Schulz stands down * Greek Minister suggests second referendum if “irrational” austerity is continued

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB
Brexit details * Weakening dollar * Saudis plan early exit * Markets slip * Davos

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

US Futures, Dollar Slide; Global Stocks Drop After Trump Comments; May Speech Awaited


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar weakened further overnight after a three-day weekend in the US on no obvious catalyst as Trump’s taking the oath of office approaches Friday. Meanwhile sterling was fairly stable if nervous ahead of today’s speech from prime minister May.

Brexit - kova vai pehmeä paketti? * EKP julkaisee pankkien viimeisimmän neljänneksen luotonantoa koskevan kyselyn * EKP osti velkakirjoja ensimmäistä kertaa alle ohjauskoron * Ison-Britannian joulukuun inflaation odotetaan kiihtyneen