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Monday, February 13

13th Feb - Rally

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Germany: CDU & CSU team up to clip Schulz' rise – Deutsche Bank

Tsipras Warns IMF, Schauble To "Stop Playing With Fire" Over Greek Debt – ZH
Tsipras warns IMF and Germany over bailout talks – FT

Overview of bond, CDS, FX risk reversals – “investors waking up to risks” – BB

Winter 2017 Economic Forecast – EU
Brexit's Hit to Growth Will Be Milder Than Expected, EU Says – BB

Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory – ZH
Where the 2 leading French presidential candidates stand on the major issues – BI

Tim Duy: Too Early for the Fed to Consider a March Rate Increase – BB
Barclays: "Significant Change Is Coming To The Fed Over The Next 18 Months" – ZH
Tarullo exits Federal Reserve – FT
Tim Duy: Fed's Bullard Knows His Treasury Yield Curve – BB
How to exit from unconventional monetary policy? (Sad.) – Jussi Lindgren
Trump to nominate three Fed governors as Tarullo resignsDanske Bank
Your potential Trump-Fed candidatesFT

Pence was told Flynn didn’t discuss sanctions, aides say – Politico
CIA freezes out top Flynn aide – Politico
View: What the Anti-Trump Movement Can Learn From the 1960s – BB
Trump and the Myth of Protectionist Disaster – Huffington Post
Timeline of Trump's ties with Russia lines up with allegations – BI

Has ‘Fade the Trump trade’ ended? – Macro Tourist
Corporate Longevity: Index Turnover and Corporate Performance – Credit Suisse
El-Erian: What’s Next for the Trump Market Rally – BB
Recent Outperformance Of Low Volatility A Sign Of Risk Off Ahead? – Horan
David Ader: A Top Bond Strategist Looks at Stocks and Recoils – BB

It’s 1980s All Over Again for FX Desks Looking at Trade Flow – BB

Yield Forecast Update Danske Bank
Higher yields an H2 17 theme

Aurelija Augulyte’s FX: Inflection pointNordea
While the Markets are still cheering, clouds gathering - watch China. The NOKSEK vulnerable. As policy uncertainty and core inflation risks under-priced in the US, the EUR political risks are well the EURUSD at key support levels.

Morning Report APACTF
Asian markets were trading mixed following North Korea's comments early today that the test of its new missile type on the weekend was successful. Meanwhile oil jumped as the IEA reported record Opec cuts compliance.


‘Muted’ City Jobs Market, UK Tech Outlook Brightens, IMF Unnerves Europe

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Asian equities firm, Yellen tomorrow, Riksbank on Wednesday * This week’s highlights: Yellen’s testimony and the Riksbank decision * Rates subject to further downside risks * EUR/USD finds support above 1.06

Morning MarketsTF
Japanese prime minister Shinzo's Abe trip to the US including gruelling 27 holes of golf with the US president on Trump-owned courses was seen easing financial markets' fears of a protectionist backlash. With the two leaders apparently hitting it off the dollar firmed and the yen eased in a relief rally.

From the Floor TF
Political anxiety in Europe continues unabated Monday morning as the spread between Dutch 10-year bonds yields and their German counterpart stretches out to 34 basis points ahead of next month's pivotal election.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Quiet Start of Busy Week

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Futures Make New Record Highs As "Trump Trade" Euphoria Returns

Frontrunning ZH

FX UpdateTF
USDJPY jumped higher to start the week as US president Donald Trump avoided making hostile comments on trade or currency during Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s visit. USD traders this week will focus squarely on Fed chief Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Palauttaako Yellen uskon kolmanteen koronnostoon * USA:n inflaatio kiihtyy * Odotamme Riksbankin pysyttelevän odottavalla kannalla keskiviikon kokouksessaan * Japanin BKT-kasvu ylitti pitkän aikavälin potentiaalisen kasvuvauhtinsa

Muistioita hallitukselle. Talouspolitiikan linjaus keväällä 2017ETLA

Risto Murto: Kreikka saanee rahansaVerkkouutiset