Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s ‘Weekly Support’ is here.
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LAST WEEK
Late-Day
Panic-Buying Sends Dow To Longest Record Streak In 30 Years
Bloomberg’s
What'd You Miss in Markets This Week? – Youtube
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Record-setting
stock rally faces test in Trump speech
Weighing the Week Ahead – Jeff Miller
It
is a big week for economic data and the first address to Congress from the new
President. Most of the punditry is engaged in a collective head-shake about
overbought conditions. Even if the data flow remains strong, pundits will be asking: Have
stock prices lost touch with reality?
The Fed knows it knows nothing FOMC
members underscore the uncertainty looming over fiscal policy. When in doubt,
abstain * The quality of Germany’s infrastructure is deteriorating because of
lack of spending. In particular, the municipalities have reduced their
investments * Another try The Eurogroup meeting held earlier this week failed
to reach a political agreement on Greece. A solution will eventually be found
as each party makes concessions, although the size of these efforts has yet to
be determined.
Week Ahead – Nordea
US
President Trump’s address to the Congress will take centre stage next week. How
concrete he chooses to be about his plans, we don’t know. Get ready to be
surprised. There is also heavy data supply from the Nordic countries.
Tue:
Trump speech - finally details on tax policy? Wed: US PCE inflation
Holding
an EU/euro referendum would be difficult for Le Pen without strong
parliamentary backing * EUR periphery spread widening if Le Pen wins but ECB to
stand ready to ease financial spillovers * Nordic FX and FI markets would see safe-haven
inflows if Le Pen wins
US:
Jawboning to dominate data * Asia: More cautious Chinese manufacturers? *
Europe: Reflation or disinflation?
Low
VIX and Thin Spreads Could Be on Thin Ice
Eurozone
PMI rises strongly * US PMI eases; diversion with Philly Fed index cannot last
* UK growth continues to defy Remain-camp predictions, but far too early for
Brexiteers to claim victory as business spending stalls * Global trade
continues strong momentum
Speculators
Grow Net Long Dollar-Bloc Currency Futures, while Bears Jump on Short Euro
Ranges
Dominate in FX: Respect the Price Action
Macro Comment – Marc
Chandler
Macroeconomics
and Psychology
FX4 Next Week: Keeping
an open mind on Trump’s speech – TF
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin's comments have dampened expectations for the US president's speech to Congress on Tuesday, but we prefer to keep an open mind going into that event.
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin's comments have dampened expectations for the US president's speech to Congress on Tuesday, but we prefer to keep an open mind going into that event.
All
of the US equity indices made new all-time highs again this week. Treasuries
were the biggest winner. A drawdown of at least 5-8% in SPX is odds-on before
year year end, but there are a number of compelling studies suggesting that
2017 will probably continue to be a good year for US equities.
Aurelija Augulyte’s
Weekly FX: Catch 22
– Nordea
The
dollar is struggling despite recently good data and comments. Can Trump safe
the rally? Or will it kill itself... China, euro area not immune to a slowdown,
but US pays the first bill (in USD).
Bonds: Lifting
uncertainty to lift rates – Nordea
While
improving economic data have not been able to lift rates further in the US,
clarity about Trump’s fiscal plans may just do the trick. More certainty about
a fiscal boost would also free the market to price in more Fed tightening.