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Wednesday, February 22

22nd Feb - Minutes suggest hikes coming

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European integration and populism: Addressing Dahrendorf's quandary – vox
Some Europeans want to use the U.S. President as a political excuseWSJ
Brexit to Hit Jobs, Wealth and Output for Years to Come, Economists Say – BB
European Semester Winter Package – EU
EU Threatens To Fine Italy For Deficit Caused By EU – Forbes

Annual inflation up to 1.8% in the euro area – EC
ECB unimpressed by the rise in inflation – for now – Deutsche Bank
ECB Can Renew Free Loans to Banks If Needed, Council Member Says – BB

February Ifo Business Climate Index Rises – CESifo
German Two-Year Yields Fall to Record as Haven Demand Persists – BB
Syrian migrants are not always entitled to refugee status, says German court – DW

Mark Gilbert: Markets Are Right to Take a Len Pen Presidency Seriously – BB
French Bonds, Euro Spike Bayrou Endorses Macron, Le Pen's Chief Of Staff Detained – ZH

Ramesh Ponnuru: Maybe Trump Is Just a Weak President – BB
Is the “deep state” a threat to Trump - or to democracy? – VOX

How the Fed Could Unwind Its Balance Sheet – BB
Thoughts about the Fed's Balance Sheet – Marc Chandler
The 5 Key Things To Watch For In Today's Fed Minutes – ZH
Minute Hint Hike "Fairly Soon", Warn Trump Policies “May Not Materialize" ZH
Minutes: "Might be appropriate to raise the rate again fairly soon" – Bill McBride

Martin Enlund’s Global: Le Penning the Euro Nordea
“Frexit” remains a remote possibility, but French politics have been impacting both FI & FX markets recently. We don’t see a strong case for fighting these dynamics. At least not yet.

I forgot what we are dealing withKevin Muir

Morning Report APACTF
Encouraging US retail earnings and oil prices at seven-week highs buoyed equities markets.

ABB discovers ‘massive fraud’, life expectancy breaks the 90 barrier and inside the $143bn flop

Lloyds Profit Quadruples, Saudi Aramco Picks Underwriters, Gina Miller on Post-Brexit Britain

Danske DailyDanske Bank

MXN surges on hedge plan, EUR undermined by Le Pen, FOMC minutes awaited * “Euro area” and “rate hike” in same heading! * Banxico hedge plan sends Peso surging * France-German 10Y spread widest since 2012

Morning Markets TF
The euro continues its downward trajectory for a fifth day running following Brexit's passing unchallenged through its first reading in the House of Lords and Marine Le Pen's widening lead in the French presidential polls.

From the FloorTF
If bonds are your barometer for the state of the global market, then the gyrations in the European market Tuesday will have given pause for thought as the mounting concerns over the coming French presidential election kept demand for German bunds high.
Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Euro Meltdown Continues

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Breitbart flops in Europe — EU economic police reports — Mysterious Hungarian visit

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

US Open ZH
European Rally Fizzles, S&P Futures Turn Red As USDJPY Slides, Bunds Strongly Bid


FX Update TF
The recent EURUSD dip has been more about a weak euro and less about the dollar as most euro pairs are on the defensive and EURGBP has broken down through a big support level though an even bigger one awaits.

Euro laskupaineessa * Ranskan vaaleihin liittyvä epävarmuus heikentää euroa * Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit ylittivät konsensusodotukset * Saksassa julkaistaan helmikuun IFO-indeksi

Markku Jokisipilä: Fasistinen maailmanvallankumousTS

Labor Market Integration of Refugees in FinlandVATT

Brysselin kone: Eteneekö EU kaksilla raiteillaYLE
Haastateltavana oikeustieteen lisensiaatti Jacob Söderman

Tuomas Välimäki: Demokratia ja markkinariskitSuomen Pankki