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Saturday, February 18

18th Feb - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s ‘Weekly Support’ is here.

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Weekly Market ReviewZH
Dow, VIX, Gold All Up As Yet Another Ratio Screams "Record High"

Bloomberg’s What'd You Miss in Markets This Week? – Youtube

S&P 500 Snapshot dshort
Yet Another Record Close

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Wall St Week AheadReuters
With stocks at highs, investors eye consumer results
Weighing the Week Ahead Jeff Miller

We have another holiday-shortened week with little fresh data. While there are some Fed speakers on tap, it is not enough to feed the avaricious punditry. There are two competing themes: the spike in inflation and the continuing assessment of Trump Administration policies. Once again, I expect the two to be joined in most commentaries.

EcoWeekBNP Paribas
UK:  about to start to leave the UE. A painful process that will need a certain degree of creativity * US: Reflation? Data released this week highlight a rebound in activity and inflation. Ii is however too soon to read this as the first signs of the reflation some are expecting. * France: Significantly more jobs, a little less unemployment in 2016 - the job market is finally showing clear signs of improvement.

Week Ahead – Nordea
The PMIs from the Euro area and the US will give insights into developments in the global real economy in an environment of high economic policy uncertainty. Next week will start with a Eurogroup meeting where Greece is the hot topic.

Weekly Focus: Industrial cycle looks set to peak Danske Bank
February purchasing manager indices – rise in US, moderation in Europe? * Minutes of the latest Fed meeting unlikely to surprise * UK debate on Article 50 on Monday

Strategy: Trump trade Part II? Danske Bank
After a lot of political noise, the Trump administration is finally starting to gear up the economic
policy agenda * This may reignite the second leg of the ‘Trump trade’ following a brief pause * We recommend positioning for a stronger USD and a leap higher in US equity markets in coming
months * US yields may also increase but the crux is the Fed reaction to Trump’s fiscal plans * A stronger USD and higher US yields, together with a Chinese economic slowdown, are likely to weigh on emerging market currencies over the next few months.

Week AheadHandelsbanken

Global Week AheadScotiabank
US: Fed minutes may be stale, but showcase divisions * Canada: mixed inflation signals, retail downside? * LatAm: more central bank divergence * Europe: peaking sentiment? Asia: three regional considerations

Weekly FX Sentiment Report Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s
US Interest Rate Outlook: The Storm Before the Calm

Macro Weekly ABN AMRO
US February confidence indices suggest something special is going on * Industrial sector remains soft, but a little better in Europa and Japan * A coincidence of factors is supporting the gain in momentum * Uncertainties are significant, causing an unusually wide range of economic outcomes

Speculative PositioningMarc Chandler

Speculators Extend Long Dollar-Bloc Positions

FX OutlookMarc Chandler
What now for the Dollar?

Macro Comment – Marc Chandler

The week ahead in FXTF
It's been a mixed week especially for dollar and yen, says Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. The markets big focus right now is on the Trump administration policy and less on the Federal Reserve.

FX4 Next Week: Calm dollar ahead of Trump speechTF
Next important event for USD is Trump's speech on February 28 * Significant rally in AUDNZD through key resistance * Poor Australian unemployment rate should come with caution * Market ignored rather negative SEK-developments. SEK uptrend could continue

Weekly Market Summary - Urban Carmel

US equities continue to make new all-time highs each week, supported by strong equity fund inflows and macro data that has exceeded expectations. Surprisingly, equities outside the US are actually outperforming the S&P. The current trend is very extended and there are four notable headwinds that may impact equities in the weeks ahead. There is, conversely, a favorable set up in the bond market.