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Sunday, September 30

30th Sep - Weekly Previews

Weekly Market Review
Trade Tantrums & Trump Turmoil Spark Best Quarter For US Stocks In 5 Years

What Happened This Week in the World Economy BB
Fed hikes interest rates, U.S. and China step up tariffs

Take Five: World markets themes for the week aheadReuters

Fed chairman Jerome Powell made important comments during his press conference. Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path and lasting widespread tariffs would be bad for the US and the world. Monetary policy remains accommodative and data-dependent. Markets liked the dovish bias in the message.

Week Ahead: “Powell-put” is far out of the money Nordea
Vigorous inflation pressure is on its way in the Euro area, at least according to Mr Draghi. Jerome Powell on the other hand kept 10yr treasury yields from breaking 3.11%, while he continues to warn that the Fed put is deeply out of the money.

Weekly Focus: Crucial week for European PoliticsDanske Bank
US: Payrolls are likely to show healthy gains along with another uptick in wage growth * Europe: Italian budget projections will continue to be a theme for financial markets as well as the reaction from the EU commission and rating agencies * UK: Conservative Party Conference beginning on Sunday and lasting until Wednesday will be critical for the outlook of Brexit negotiations with the EU * Asia: Downside risks to China’s PMI for September in light of the trade war with the US, while Japan may see a small rebound in business confidence. Sweden:  government formation talks will be watched along with the PMI survey, which should post a modest rebound.

Strategy: Central banks still key actors for marketsDanske Bank
Market participants are not waiting for the first ECB hike to actually arrive before reacting * The next big move in EUR/USD is up, when the first ECB hike draws closer. We forecast 1.25 in 12M. * The US economy is in great shape despite trade war concerns supporting the case for further Fed rate hikes and higher US Treasury yields.

Global Week AheadScotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s
Profits Determine Effect of High Corporate Debt to GDP Ratio

Macro WeeklyABN AMRO
The US economy is still producing solid growth and modest inflation * Confidence in the eurozone continues to weaken * Italy’s budget disappoints, but does it justify a huge sell off? * The Fed sticks to its plan

Weekly Market CommentMarc Chandler
Fed and Italy Lift Dollar Tone

Weekly Macro CommentMarc Chandler
Four events stand out in the first week of October:  the situation in Italy, UK Prime Minister May's speech at the Tory Party Conference, the EMU PMI, and the US jobs data

FX WeeklyNordea
A stronger USD, while EUR/CHF is trading higher. To us, that is a sign that it’s not Italy that has driven EUR/USD lower, rather it is the year-end once again showing its “ugly face”. The USD year-end effect is another reason to be long NOK/SEK.

G10 FX week ahead: Messy European politics strikes back – ING
In a politically charged FX world, expect price action in the upcoming week to be dominated by European politics - with both the Italian fiscal budget and Brexit noise at the Tory party conference providing headline risks to both EUR and GBP. European currencies look set to underperform traditional havens (USD, JPY, CHF) in the G10 FX space next week