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Tuesday, September 4

4th Sep - Emerging market trouble


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EUROPE
Sweden on the Populist Precipice? Not So Fast – BB
Investors are worried about the Sweden Democrats for the wrong reasons.

Fiscal battle looms over Italian bonds – Pictet
Italy is coming back into focus as investors become increasingly nervous about 2019 budget discussions.

Core inflation cool even in eurozone economies running hot – ABN AMRO


UNITED STATES
Of Trump, taxes, and earnings growth – FT
Lower tax rates accounted for 47% of year-over-year earnings growth (2Q18 v 2Q17) in the aggregate for the S&P 500 companies analysed


OTHER
Turkey crisis: a long time coming – ABN AMRO
Turkey will face a severe crisis; we have adjusted our growth forecast to -3% in 2019 * Troubles have been building up over time. US diplomatic spat was the trigger for the currency crisis * Non-financial corporate sector is directly in the line of fire * Crisis will spill over to the banking sector and FX liquidity issues will become more prominent * Government’s fiscal position will worsen on the back of support provided to banks/corporate sector

FX: what usually happens ahead of US curve inversions? – Nordea
The curve keeps flattening, the current US economic expansion is the second oldest ever, and financial markets appear to be showing a late-cyclical mindset. In this piece we look at what usually happens in the FX space ahead of US curve inversions.

"Expect More Pain": As EM Contagion Goes Global, Wall Street Sees No Way Out – ZH

It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like a Crisis – BB
The emerging-market selloff has all the hallmarks of contagion.

Emerging-Market Contagion Concerns Are Becoming Contagious – BB


REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

WSJ City – WSJ
Trump Puts Bare-Knuckle Diplomacy to Test, Is it Time to Buy Emerging Markets?

Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Emerging markets put to work on Labour Day

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Safe in Japan — Militia in Slovenia — Martin Selmayr’s D-Day

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tänään julkaistaan USA:n ISM-ostopäällikköindeksi | IMF:n Lagarde ja Argentiinan Dujovne tapaavat tänään lainaohjelman maksujen nopeuttamisen merkeissä | Punta heikkeni Brexit-huolien ja heikkojen lukujen myötä, öljyn hinta jatkoi nousuaan

Ruplan ja öljynhinnan kohtalonyhteys – Suomen Pankki