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Wednesday, November 14

14th Nov - Bad GDP from Europe, weak China

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Brexit update: A breakthrough, but not a deal (yet)Nordea
Last night, the EU and the UK reached an agreement on a draft Brexit deal. However, don't get carried away. Theresa May still faces a tough challenge getting the deal through the UK parliament. We stay long EUR/GBP short term.

Eurozone: a dismal third quarter confirmedING
GDP growth in the Eurozone was confirmed at just 0.2% in Q3. Industrial production saw a decline in September. While a small recovery of GDP is expected for Q4, growth momentum has clearly been lost in 2018

European Banks Update
In line with the trend of recent quarters, the 3Q18 earnings season was relatively uneventful * Expectations for a new round of TLTRO for euro area banks is growing. The ECB might provide some signals to the market in December, whilst the final details could be provided in March 2019.

Leonid Bershidsky: Europe’s Privacy Rules Are Having Unintended Consequences
Europe may succeed in redirecting innovation from data plundering into other areas. If so, that will be a good thing.

Editorial: Don’t Let Italy Block Euro-Zone ReformBB
Rome’s budget plans are no reason for Europe to go slow on revamping the monetary union.

German Economy Shrinks For First Time In 3 Years As Car Production CollapsesZH

German economy contracts for first time since 2015 FT
Fall in exports to China combines with auto industry problems to hit growth

Germany: Wake-up callING
First it was politics, now it is the economy. The worst economic performance since 1Q 2013 is another wake-up call for the eurozone’s largest economy to take action

Angela Merkel heads for the exit amid echoes of the Weimar Republic FT
The notion that Germany has become a ‘normal’ country has been a feature of her era

Merkel’s big EU speech: What she said, what she meantPolitico
German chancellor’s take on the future of Europe.

Why the CDU, CSU and SPD are losing voters, and how to win them backHandelsblatt

Leonid Bershidsky: Merkel Tries Not to Go Out With a Bang BB
Her big speech on the future of Europe was all caution and no ambition.

If Italy Behaves Itself, Draghi’s Parting Gift for Europe May Be a Rate HikeBB
The European Central Bank president hasn’t hiked once in seven years.

Italian government sticks to its 2019 deficit planPictet
In a letter to the European Commission on 13 November, the Italian government confirmed that it would aim for a budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and reasserted its real growth forecast of 1.5% for next year.

Italian Politics Monitor: Budget truce postponedDanske Bank
The Italian budget drama enters the next round, as the Italian government refrained from material changes to its 2019

Ferdinando Giugliano: Italy's Banks Leap Aboard a Burning ShipBB
The lifeline thrown to Carige brings to mind the ill-fated Atlante rescue of two Venetian lenders. Is this a voyage that’s really worth repeating?

Tax, Trump and Trade: how to halve the deficitING
The US trade deficit is not all it seems and President Trump could claim a ‘big win’ should he choose to clamp down on companies’ tax optimisation activities

Who Really Has a Shot in 2020?BB
There are dozens of potential candidates. Here’s how to tell who’s a serious contender.

China’s weak economic data herald more stimulusFT
Retail and property sales stutter while credit growth slides to all-time low

China: first signs of support kicking in ABN AMRO
Growth weakens further in October; investment recovers as support kicks in * Weak lending data partly explained by seasonal factors, but more easing likely * Export growth accelerates in October, despite trade conflict with US * Import growth at over 20%, despite signs of economic slowdown

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

Brussels Edition DailyBB

Brussels BriefingFT
Brexit choreography scripted to complete a deal - officials try to balance between UK demands and the sensitivities of EU capitals

Eco Day EuropeBB
European Inflation, Italy Clutches Budget, Asean Summit

FirstFT Daily Briefing FT

WSJ Daily EconomicsWSJ
Signs of Trouble for the Global Economy

Danske DailyDanske Bank
UK cabinet to discuss PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Comes Back After Yesterday's Profit-Taking

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit deal — Europe’s problem children — Derailed!

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Oil Rebound Fizzles, Pound Tumbles
Inflaatiolukuja Ruotsista, Iso-Britanniasta ja USA:sta | Iso-Britannia ja EU sopuun alustavasta Brexit-sopimuksesta, Italian hallitus ei aio muuttaa budjettiesitystään | Öljyn hinta jatkoi laskuaan