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EUROPE
Brexit update: A
breakthrough, but not a deal (yet) – Nordea
Last
night, the EU and the UK reached an agreement on a draft Brexit deal. However,
don't get carried away. Theresa May still faces a tough challenge getting the
deal through the UK parliament. We stay long EUR/GBP short term.
Eurozone: a dismal
third quarter confirmed – ING
GDP
growth in the Eurozone was confirmed at just 0.2% in Q3. Industrial production
saw a decline in September. While a small recovery of GDP is expected for Q4,
growth momentum has clearly been lost in 2018
European Banks Update – Daiwa
In
line with the trend of recent quarters, the 3Q18 earnings season was relatively
uneventful * Expectations for a new round of TLTRO for euro area banks is
growing. The ECB might provide some signals to the market in December, whilst the
final details could be provided in March 2019.
Leonid Bershidsky: Europe’s Privacy Rules Are Having Unintended Consequences – BB
Europe
may succeed in redirecting innovation from data plundering into other areas. If
so, that will be a good thing.
Editorial: Don’t
Let Italy Block Euro-Zone Reform – BB
Rome’s
budget plans are no reason for Europe to go slow on revamping the monetary
union.
GERMANY
German Economy
Shrinks For First Time In 3 Years As Car Production Collapses – ZH
German economy
contracts for first time since 2015 – FT
Fall
in exports to China combines with auto industry problems to hit growth
Germany: Wake-up
call
– ING
First
it was politics, now it is the economy. The worst economic performance since 1Q
2013 is another wake-up call for the eurozone’s largest economy to take action
Angela Merkel
heads for the exit amid echoes of the Weimar Republic – FT
The
notion that Germany has become a ‘normal’ country has been a feature of her era
Merkel’s big EU
speech: What she said, what she meant – Politico
German
chancellor’s take on the future of Europe.
Why the CDU, CSU
and SPD are losing voters, and how to win them back – Handelsblatt
Leonid Bershidsky:
Merkel Tries Not to Go Out With a Bang – BB
Her
big speech on the future of Europe was all caution and no ambition.
ITALY
If Italy Behaves
Itself, Draghi’s Parting Gift for Europe May Be a Rate Hike – BB
The
European Central Bank president hasn’t hiked once in seven years.
Italian government
sticks to its 2019 deficit plan – Pictet
In
a letter to the European Commission on 13 November, the Italian government
confirmed that it would aim for a budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and
reasserted its real growth forecast of 1.5% for next year.
Italian Politics
Monitor: Budget truce postponed – Danske
Bank
The
Italian budget drama enters the next round, as the Italian government refrained
from material changes to its 2019
Ferdinando
Giugliano: Italy's Banks Leap Aboard a Burning Ship – BB
The
lifeline thrown to Carige brings to mind the ill-fated Atlante rescue of two
Venetian lenders. Is this a voyage that’s really worth repeating?
UNITED STATES
Tax, Trump and
Trade: how to halve the deficit – ING
The
US trade deficit is not all it seems and President Trump could claim a ‘big
win’ should he choose to clamp down on companies’ tax optimisation activities
Who Really Has a
Shot in 2020?
– BB
There
are dozens of potential candidates. Here’s how to tell who’s a serious
contender.
OTHER
China’s weak
economic data herald more stimulus – FT
Retail
and property sales stutter while credit growth slides to all-time low
China: first signs
of support kicking in – ABN
AMRO
Growth
weakens further in October; investment recovers as support kicks in * Weak
lending data partly explained by seasonal factors, but more easing likely * Export
growth accelerates in October, despite trade conflict with US * Import growth
at over 20%, despite signs of economic slowdown
REGULARS
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
Brussels
Edition Daily
– BB
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
Brexit choreography scripted to complete a
deal - officials try to balance between UK demands and the sensitivities of EU
capitals
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
European Inflation, Italy Clutches Budget,
Asean Summit
FirstFT
Daily Briefing –
FT
WSJ
Daily Economics
– WSJ
Signs of Trouble for the Global Economy
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
UK cabinet to discuss PM Theresa May’s
Brexit deal
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar Comes Back After Yesterday's
Profit-Taking
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Brexit deal — Europe’s problem children —
Derailed!
Five
Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
US
Open
– ZH
Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Oil
Rebound Fizzles, Pound Tumbles
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Inflaatiolukuja
Ruotsista, Iso-Britanniasta ja USA:sta | Iso-Britannia ja EU sopuun alustavasta
Brexit-sopimuksesta, Italian hallitus ei aio muuttaa budjettiesitystään | Öljyn
hinta jatkoi laskuaan