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Thursday, January 10

10th Jan - Rally continues

Banking integration in the EMU: Let’s get real!voxeu
Bank-to-bank lending in the euro area has increased, direct cross-border lending has not. The column shows that dependence on domestic banks reduces risk-sharing in a crisis, reducing GDP growth in affected country-sectors. Benefits from banking integration are only robust to global shocks if banking integration takes the form of cross-border lending to firms and households.

Germany is stagnating
German industrial production (including construction) fell by 1.9% month-on-month in November, extending the sector’s decline to five out the six last prints.

Account of the monetary policy meetingECB

ECB Watch: The central bank sees new upside risksNordea
The ECB monetary policy account confirmed that the central bank remains comfortable with the current monetary policy setup. We think the discussion on new easing measures will pick up in the upcoming meetings.

Two Takeaways from ECB RecordMarc Chandler
Officials may have been more concerned with the deteriorating situation than they let on at the time * Confirmation that a new (third) Target Long Refinance Operation (TLTRO) is under consideration.

Italy's Salvini visits Poland to discuss eurosceptic alliance for EU electionsReuters

Italy government leaders talk of nationalising lender CarigeFT

Italy’s Salvini touts ‘European spring’ with Poland’s rightwing governmentFT
League head promises common plan to ‘fuel Europe with new strength and energy’

Salvini taunts the EU FT
The problem is not only that enforcement in a non-militarised federation of highly sovereign, multi-lingual countries is difficult, which it obviously is. It is that precedents are continuously being set which weaken the case for enforcement, or give rise to claims of inconsistency.

No more Fed rate hikesABN AMRO
Dovish shift suggests a prolonged pause  *Accelerating wage growth alone unlikely to trigger more tightening, but rate cuts also look unlikely

A U.S.-China Trade Deal Is Only Half the Fight BB
Getting to an agreement is the easy part. Enforcing Chinese compliance will be a much bigger challenge.

The Big Read: Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the marketFT
Critics say high-frequency trading makes markets too fickle amid rising anxiety over the global economy

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels Briefing FT
The reform dilemma - the yellow vests in France have shrunk in number, but a minority have violent intentions and remain a big concern for the authorities

Brussels Playbook Politico
Who’s in charge in Italy? — Looming China threat — To Romania, with love

Danske DailyDanske Bank
More minutes (ECB) and Scandi CPI

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Equity Bounce Stalls while the Greenback Steadies at Lower Levels

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

Stock Rally In Peril As Markets Slide On Lack Of Trade Deal, Dismal Data