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Tuesday, January 8

8th Jan - Germany's recession

Euro credit: 2019 outlookPictet
Last year was a difficult one for euro credit, with both the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (ICE BofAML) investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) indices posting negative total returns.

Russia Outlook 2019: Muddling throughABN AMRO
Growth will remain below long-term trend at 1.5% in 2019/2020 * Strong fiscal and external positions support resilience to shocks * Inflation expected to peak at 6% in first half of 2019 * Monetary policy will remain tight and we expect one rate cut end-2019 * Sanctions on sovereign debt and/or energy sector remain biggest risk

German Industry Unexpectedly Records Broad-Based Slump – BB
Germany: Give me an “r” – ING
Germany’s Industry Shock Raises Specter of Economic Recession – BB
Fall in German industrial output raises eurozone fears – FT
Euro-Area Economic Sentiment Sees Worst Losing Streak in Decade – BB

Fed’s New Year Resolution: Listen to marketsPictet
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks at a conference on Friday to the effect that the Fed would be ‘patient’ about further rate increases after having delivered four rate hikes in 2018.

Monthly Executive Briefing Danske Bank

Global: What if the Fed stops QT?Nordea
The Fed chair backtracked on the balance sheet in January, saying the Fed "wouldn’t hesitate to make a change” if the Fed concluded the balance sheet ”was part of the problem”. What would happen if the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet?

China monthly: Growth concern is back Nordea
A sharp slowdown has replaced the trade war as the biggest concern for China. While macro data paints a grim picture, we expect increased stimulus to provide a cushion for growth. The CNY still faces downside risks due to growth and the trade war.

People’s Bank cuts banks’ reserve requirements, more policy easing aheadPictet
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a further reduction in banks’ required reserve ratios (RRR) on Friday by 1 percentage point.

EU Open Rundown RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels Briefing FT
The forlorn 49 - their limbo shows how disproportionate the reaction to irregular migration has become

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Refugee crisis lingers — German Twitter wars — Eyes on Romania

Danske DailyDanske Bank
Risk sentiment up on possible 'reasonable' trade deal

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Steadies, but Weakly for Turn-Around Tuesday,

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US Futures, European Stocks Jump On Trade Optimism

Daily EconomyWSJ

Daily Economy
Italy Set to Help Bank, U.S.-China Talks, Shutdown Woes * Bostic says Fed should raise rates only once this year * Samsung’s massive miss highlights risks to Korean economy

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