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Monday, January 14

14th Jan - Economies slowing



EUROPE
Germany, France Push for 0.2% Tax on European Stock Trades BB
Market-making activities would be exempt under the joint plan * A portion of revenue from the tax would be shared among states

Leonid Bershidsky: The EU Faces Its Make-or-Break Moment on Taxes
BB
The bloc will decide whether to limit the smaller member states’ ability to set their own levies to attract companies.

The ECB’s performance during the crisisvoxeu
The ECB’s actions in the wake of the Global Crisis have been described as hesitant, relative to other central banks. Based on analysis of financial markets' response to the ECB's interventions during the euro crisis, this column argues that central bank interventions are effective if they clearly signal a commitment to reinvigorating the economy and if they address the source rather than the symptom of financial stress. The ECB did not follow these principles, limiting its ability to improve financial market sentiment.

  SLOWDOWN
Euro-area outlook: Bruised and battered but not out
Nordea
The Euro-area economic outlook has quickly turned dimmer and the first half of 2019 is unlikely to show much improvement. The economy is likely to pick up some momentum in the latter half of 2019, allowing the ECB to hike rates in December 2019.

Eurozone industrial production plummets in November ING
A decline in production shatters hopes of a bounce back in growth after an already weak Q3, as fears of a technical recession in some large Eurozone economies are mounting

Euro-Area Production Slump Adds to Gloom for Economic OutlookBB
Industrial output falls more than expected in November * Decline was broad-based across Germany, France, Italy & Spain

ECB's Nowotny Urges Caution on Rate Increases as Growth Slows BB
Austrian central banker comments in Der Standard interview * Nowotny says developments in German economy key for outlook

Editorial: Germany’s Economy Could Soon Need a BoostBB
If the slowdown persists, Berlin’s fiscal conservatives might have to think the unthinkable.


UNITED STATES
El-Erian: Why the Fed and Markets Don’t Agree on Interest-Rate Prospects BB
Despite strong U.S. jobs data, investors expect the central bank to stop hiking this year and cut in 2020 and 2021.

What U.S. Government Shutdown Means for Economic DataBB


OTHER
The World’s Biggest Economies Are Moving Deeper Into a Slowdown BB
OECD gauge adds to worries after numbers from Germany, China * Central bankers have taken note of mounting global risks

China's exports shrink most in two years, raising risks to global economyReuters

Trump Has Secret Allies in China BB
Private-sector Chinese businesses are key to growth, and they happen to share many of the same complaints as the U.S.

The public cost of excess private debtvoxeu
Since the financial crisis researchers have extensively explored the dangers of excessive public debt, but excessive private debt has received less attention. This column documents a common form of indirect private sector bailout that goes largely unnoticed. Whenever households and firms are caught in a debt overhang and need to deleverage, governments come to the rescue through a countercyclical rise in public debt. This indirect substitution takes place even in the absence of a crisis.


REGULARS
EU Open Rundown RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
The argument in Athens threatens to add an obstacle for those in the EU who want to embrace their western Balkan neighbours as the Brits depart

Brussels Edition BB

Brussels Playbook Politico
Gdańsk mayor critical — Brexit week — Weber vs. Barnier

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dismal Chinese Trade Data Sets Tone

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US OpenZH
Futures Tumble Following Dismal Chinese Trade Data

Daily EconomyWSJ
Government Stays Shut, China Rattles Markets


FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
Brexit-sopimuksesta äänestetään tiistaina Iso-Britannian parlamentissa | Kiinan vienti supistui yllättäen joulukuussa | Tänään julkaistaan Ruotsin inflaatioluvut, loppuviikolla tulossa myös Britannian ja Japanin inflaatioluvut