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Friday, January 25

25th Jan - Macro still bad, but news and markets good #4004


EUROPE
Update on euro area economic activityPictet
The big question about the euro area economy is when the bottom of the slowdown will be reached.

ifo Business Climate Index Falls CESIFO
German business confidence approaches three-year lowFT
German Business Confidence Deteriorates Amid Heightened RisksBB

Draghi’s law of conditional safetyEric Lonergan
The fundamental macroeconomic policy challenge faced by the Eurozone is how to have a risk free asset – which is essential to the functioning of a modern financial system – while simultaneously preventing fiscal free-riding. Mario Draghi, somewhat miraculously, may have squared this circle.


UNITED STATES
Trump, lawmakers reach deal to end shutdown Reuters
President Trump said he has reached a tentative agreement with lawmakers for three weeks in stop-gap funding that would end a partial government shutdown now in its 35th day, with a senior Democratic aide saying money for a border wall is not included.


OTHER
A tour of the global economy (in one chart pack) Danske Bank
In this macro chart pack, we present the state of the world economy, with charts on the global macro economy, the US, euro area, China, Japan and financial markets more broadly.

George Soros launches attack on Chinese president XiFT
Soros launched an attack on China’s president Xi Jinping, singling out advancements in artificial intelligence in the hands of repressive regimes as a “mortal threat” to societies around the world.

Perspectives: Investing in 2019Pictet


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day Asia BB

Eco Day AsiaBB
Global Trade Cracks, PBOC Swap Tool, Draghi Rate Window * Germany’s industrial slump worsened at the beginning of 2019 * Google searches signal U.S. retail sales, consumption hold up

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
A new Brexit script: a revised ‘political declaration’ on future relations holds some lessons for what lies ahead

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Stoltenberg talks Russia, nuclear — Davos dispatch — Euroskeptics unite

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Eco Day EuropeBB
'Miles' From Trade Deal, ECB Flags Risks, U.S. Comfort * U.S. commerce secretary gives stark review of talks with China * ECB’s Draghi weighs negative global risks more heavily

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Euro Pares Yesterday's Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US OpenZH
Stocks Rally After Shrugging Off Trade Concerns, Dismal German Data

Eco Day US BB
Shutdown Hampers U.S. Data, ECB Outlook, BOE Succession * Data delays amid shutdown has made it harder for Fed, farmers * Draghi is watching his ECB rate hike slip over the horizon


FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
Draghi myönsi sen, minkä muut jo tiesivät - EKP totesi euroalueen riskinäkymien kääntyneen alasuuntaisiksi | Tänään Saksasta julkaistaan talouselämän luottamusta kuvaava Ifo-indeksi | Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit jatkoivat laskuaan