Good morning, the negative comments from Germany have not exactly crashed the markets yet, but a slight negative tone in both the EUR and S&P is evident.
It is a strange world we inhabit. One where economies remain extremely depressed yet almost no companies go bankrupt, while low interest rates encourage holders of capital to speculate. One where global turmoil mounts while the world passively watches. One where nearly every member of Congress will insist that we need to rein in deficit spending, while collectively Congress accomplishes virtually nothing. It would be absurdly funny if it weren’t so incredibly tragic. – Seth Klarman, Founder of Baupost Group
What you missed during the weekend:
Weekender: Views & Off-Topics
(my comments)
Weekender: HFT: Knightian
Uncertainty (high-frequency trading)
Credit Guest: The Unbearable
Lightness ... (end game close?)
Weekender: Weekly Support
(week behind & ahead)
Weekender: Best of The Week
(if you missed)
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Weak risk appetite on Friday in the aftermath
of China’s softer trade data led to the usual rumours/chatter of a weekend China rate cut late in the
session. They came to nothing, so Asia kicked off the session with another weakish start
Market Preview: Italian & French auctions
on tap – Saxo
Bank
European markets are expected to open
marginally higher Monday amid speculation that global central banks might take
additional measures to boost growth. Investors await the outcome of Italian and
French bond auctions due later in the day.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
With no important data releases in the global
calendar today, markets wil ldigest the disappointing growth data out of Japan this morning and
await more important releases later this week. Focus will continue to centre on
the development in the sovereign bond markets in Italy and Spain. Investors are
awaiting more info on when/whether Spain will request EFSF
assistance and details on how the ECB could intervene.
Morning Briefing: Down under – BNY
Mellon
The AUD is on the rise for reasons old and
just possibly, new
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
Japanin talouskasvu
hidastuu * Euroalueelta tulossa taantumaan osoittavia lukuja * Saksan ja USA:n
korot laskussa heikon talousdatan myötä
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Japanin pehmeät
BKT-luvut heikko alku viikolle, Aasian markkina pienessä laskussa. Tuloskausi
päätökseen tällä viikolla, makrodatan osalta uutisvirta käyntiin huomenna. Osakefutuurit
nyt aamulla lievästi negatiivisella puolella ,indikoiden laskuavausta. 2Q12-tuloskausi
lähenee loppuaan – 87% OMX HEX yrityksistä raportoinut: Liikevaihdot
ovat ylittäneet odotukset, mutta tulokset ovat olleet odotuksia heikompia.
EUROPE
Merkel Is Baaaaaaack – ZH
Deputy chancellor Fuchs: Germany has "reached the limit of its capacity" over additional EFSF
payments to Greece, the ESM should not receive a banking license, the ECB should not act
as money printing press in disguise. Also, BNP Paribas: Greece, Trying To Catch Up.
The Owl Of Minerva – Edward Hugh / Fistful
of Euros
Well, if you let things go to hell for the best
part of five years, naturally the patient is in a poor state and in need of
radical surgery. I won’t say “I hope they know what they are doing,” since I am
pretty sure they don’t. Perhaps I would rather say I hope Mariano Rajoy knows
what he is letting himself in for when he asks for help from the ECB.
OTHER
Markets: A Tale of Two Masters – Macro
and Cheese
In other words, the current conditions are a
recipe for market instability. If and
when economic calamity weighs down on the market, the market will drop, but
find its legs due to government goodies and bargain-hunters, and pop back
up. Just which side of the buttered
bread will end up when it all hits the fan is a matter of taste.
Who Wants The Highest Crude Oil Price?
Presenting The OPEC Cost Curve – ZH
Breakeven
price has soared from just $77 two years ago to a whopping $99/barrel. Iran requires $127 to balance its budget.
Full
APIC pdf
Austerity, Debt-Deleveraging, And Why
'Muddle-Through' Fails – ZH
SocGen: Critically then, without policy confidence
'muddle-through' will keep leaking back to unsustainable crises; and with the
burden of the required structural reforms (given even aggressive growth
expectations) policy-makers are highly unlikely to gain and keep the public's
confidence in order to jump the chasm from Austerity Trap to expansionary
fiscal contraction.
Global Home Prices July 2012 – Deutsche Bank
/ scribd
IN FINNISH
Kovaa puhetta
Euroopasta – MT
Sailaksen
poikkeuksellisen kovan puheenvuoron jälkeen on selvä, että Suomessa pitää
selvittää pohjia myöden, mitä vaihtoehtoja nykyiselle menolle on.
Saksalainen tilasto
näyttää: Asuntokupla Suomessa on tosi – US
Italian pankit
keksivät uuden koiruuden taseidensa kaunistamiseksi – TE
Italian keskuspankki pääomittamaan liikepankkeja?
Olli Rehn haaveilee
taas eurobondeista – TE
”Kreikan pysyminen
eurossa on Suomen etu” – MT
OP-Pohjolan pääjohtaja
Reijo Karhinen: Kreikan jäsenyys pitää euron heikkona, mikä hyödyttää Suomen
vientiteollisuutta.