US Open: Bored
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Recap –
Global Macro Trading
Market
Commentary – A
View From My Screens
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
German Courts Could Say ‘Yes,’ ‘No’ – Or ‘Maybe’ – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
The Tragedy of the Euro – Philipp
Bagus / QFinance
Eurosystem Central Banks and the TARGET2 Debt
Debate – John
Whittaker / QFinance
Germany 6% Current Account Surplus a "Threat to the Continent" Says
EU Commission; Solution is Gold Coupled With Eurozone Breakup – Mish’s
What the Habsburg Empire can tell us about
breaking up the euro zone – Wonkblog
/ WP
In fact, he argues, if even one country left —
whether a troubled country like Greece or rich country like Finland — that
would trigger a chain reaction that would eventually split the whole euro zone:
“The exit of any single country from the EMU, at the present time when large
imbalances have been accumulated, would likely lead to a bank run, which would
cause the EMU payments system to break down and with it the EMU itself.” (the article is here,
also full pdf)
The ECB's end of the bargain – Free
exchange / The Economist
The inflation obsession is leaving the central
bank more involved in the economy and more politically overextended than it
would be if it focused on maintaining stable growth in demand.
Hedge Funds Capitulate on European Shorts – BB
EUROPE: GDP
Euro area
economy contracted by 0.2% in Q2 2012 – ASA
EUROPE: SPAIN
Spanish Bank Borrowings From ECB Continue
Parabolic Rise – ZH
Is Rajoy Serious or is He Just Flirting? – Marc
to Market
Rajoy himself continues to keep his card close
to his vest. After meeting with the King earlier, Rajoy said that his decision
still depends on knowing how the mechanism will work and the new conditions
associated with ECB bond purchases.
USA: RETAIL SALES
Rebound in
retail sales should be brief – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Retail
Sales increased 0.8% in July – Calculated
Risk
A
Surprisingly Strong Retail Sales Report For July – The
Capital Spectator
Positive
Retail Sales Report Isn’t Winning Over Skeptics – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Retail
Sales Good for Reality, Bad for QE Trade, Gold – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
US Retail Sales – BNY
Mellon
Retail
sales bounce after 3 mo’s of declines – The
Big Picture
Mystery Of
July Retail Sales "Beat" Solved: It Is All In The "Seasonal
Adjustment" – ZH
Market Reaction: Gold/FX/TSYs Signal QE-Off, Equities Still
Believe – ZH
USA: STOCK MARKET
If we compare the correlations so far in 2012
to the correlations over the past ten years, we see that the inverse
correlations between the long bond and stocks as well as the dollar and stocks
have gotten more extreme. Both Telecom
and Utilities have seen their correlations with the S&P 500 and the other
eight sectors drop quite a bit as well.
What Happened The Last Two Times VIX Closed
Below 15%? – ZH
Following the two times that VIX first closed
below 15%, the S&P 500 has suffered from a 5.25% and 7.75% plunge in the
following two months - and each time saw a quick post-VIX-plunge pop in stocks
that provided better entry levels for shorts. High Yield credit also stumbled
hard widening 80 and 150bps respectively.
Update: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index – PragCap
The Dismal Earnings Season – The Big
Picture
OTHER
In Search Of Lost
Demand – Fistful of
Euros
Why is the global economy hamstrung by heavy
debts and weak banks? Or put another way, why doesn’t deleveraging happen, and
the weight of debt reduce, and why doesn’t the economy expand so the weak banks
can once more become robust and healthy ones? Short answer, it’s the demand
side stupid!
Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 - 2010:
Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts – IMF
The first complete dataset of sovereign
restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186
debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt
agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome
and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor
participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the
relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and
discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default
swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Defying gravity – Free
exchange / The Economist
The tricky thing about Japan is that if the end
really is inevitable, markets ought to anticipate that and bring it about long
before Japan actually hits hard limits on domestic borrowing. And so far, that
hasn't happened. Potential triggers for a flip in the equilbrium (downgrades,
disasters) have come and gone without having the anticipated effect. But as
they say one goes bankrupt very slowly, then all at once.
‘Don’t be a hero – start from zero’ – alphaville
/ FT
Matt King, Citi credit strategist, strikes
again in a new presentation — this time on capital preservation and making
‘risky’ assets ‘safe’.
IN FINNISH
Viron
terveydenhuollon it-projekti maksoi 11 miljoonaa, Suomessa jopa puoli miljardia
– TIVI
lisäksi: HUS:in
tulevan järjestelmäprojektin on arvioitu tulevan maksamaan 10 vuoden aikana
jopa 1,3–1,8 miljardia euroa.