FED did nothing, and while expectations were lowered before the event, EURUSD dropped moderately ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. For full coverage, see my continuously
updated specials ECB WATCH and FED WATCH.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Wed: US Open
Wed: US Open
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
Red
Knight Plunges And Financials Flounder As Fed Is Flummoxed
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European 10yr
Yields and Spreads – MTS
indices
EUROPE (see also my Special)
Evidence on Clogged Transmission Channel of
Monetary Policy in the Euro Area – EconoMonitor
If the ECB means business on improving the
monetary transmission channel, they’ll need to attack the price of corporate
loans in the Periphery markets.
All roads lead to easing...unfortunately – Saxo
Bank
We have to remember a few key rules for these
markets: There are no "real markets" left… All major macro changes
comes from policy mistakes
Mario Draghi’s Guns of August – Project
Syndicate
If these three steps – an ECB bond-buying
program to hold down sovereign interest rates, concrete progress on
establishing a real economic union, and realistic revision of current
adjustment programs – could be achieved as a package, the resources that the
ECB would need to use for its bond purchases would drop, because credibility
would be restored.
Above the noise: Bundesbank has been tough
before, will it again? – Saxo
Bank
Despite being backed into a corner, the
Bundesbank turned down Europe in order not to deviate from their course of monetary policy. With
German policy makers holding the keys to the Euro and their historically hard
stance against loose monetary policy, we are in for some very interesting
years. The battle between ECB and the Bundesbank is far from over and it could
be prolonged.
Nothing’s gonna stop the ECB now – alphaville
/ FT
David Mackie over at JP Morgan has been looking
at the ECB’s options this week. What he concludes is that further ECB balance
sheet expansion may now be inevitable, and much of the expansion will take
place via the ECB funding the ESM, by buying its debt directly.
First Policy Disappointment of the Week – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
As for September, it is data dependent. But we need to see some substantially weaker
data. The last six months seems to have
proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the bar to more QE is much higher than
could be inferred from the public comments of dovish policymakers.
Citi Sounds A Warning: "The Misread Of The
Fed May Also Worry Investors That They Have Misread Draghi" – ZH
FOMC: Goldman's Take – ZH
some form of monetary easing at the September
12-13 FOMC meeting is the current baseline.
MACRO DATA
Flash
Comment: US - ISM bottoming – Danske
Bank (pdf)
U.S. manufacturing shrinks for second
month – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Dismal
Manufacturing Numbers Worldwide; US ISM in Contraction Second Month; Why
Another Round of QE is Pointless – Mish’s
DB: Excesses of the “housing boom” have been
largely eliminated –
Sober
Look
Collapse – Free exchange
/ The Economist
New data on manufacturing conditions across
much of the world are out today, and the figures are just brutal. Things look
particularly grim for the euro area,
Today was
the big global PMI data dump and one thing continues to stand out here – Europe is a total disaster.
OTHER
Market Breadth Sending Warnings – The
Short Side of The Long
Equity market breadth spells more problems
ahead...
Amid a devastating drought, does it still make
sense to use corn for fuel? – Wonkblog
/ WP
The Risks Posed by Food Prices – The
Source / WSJ