6th Aug - EU Open: Curiosity

Market risk factors, source: Lighthouse IM

Good morning everyone and congratulations on the successful landing of the latest Mars rover. As someone said, let's hope they don't find any new bailout targets there. I will update the missing articles when they are published - several really good ones on Europe. See the Special: ECB WATCH for more.

 

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Weekender (Europe, markets...)

Credit Guest: The European fight of the Century

Weekender: Weekly Support (just updated)

Weekender: Best of The Week

Fri close: News roundup – Between The Hedges

Fri close Markets roundup – Between The Hedges

News roundup – Between The Hedges

The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT

Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Market Preview: Eurozone investor confidence eyed – Saxo Bank

The EUR is trading firmer against the majors this morning ahead of the release of the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index. Meanwhile, investors also await Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s speech slated later in the day.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)

As there are no important economic  releases  in the calendar today the markets are likely to focus on comments from ECB members and European politicians in view of the debt crisis and the ECB meeting last week.

Morning Briefing: The ties that bind – BNY Mellon

Germany is inextricably linked to those whom it would have linger on the cliff-edge

In Finnish:

Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)

Espanja vihjaisi avun tarpeesta myös valtiolle * Euroalueen vähittäismyynti kasvoi hieman * Öljyn hinta nousi eniten kuukauteen USA:n työllisyysdatan myötä

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)

Osakemarkkina yltyi edellisviikon päätteeksi nousuralliin, kun USA:n työllisyysraportti yllätti positiivisesti ja markkinoilla keskityttiin vielä EKP:n mahdollisiin uusiin toimenpiteisiin.

Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet

EUROPE

Venetian cunning of Draghi-Monti masterplan may save euro for now – The Telegraph

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: So we enter the treacherous market month of August with Europe in limbo. The actors wait upon each other. World finance held hostage to a fiendishly complicated game of diplomatic chess.

Watching the ECB play chess – mainly macro

What I cannot help reflecting on is the intellectual weakness of the position adopted by Draghi’s opponents. These opponents appear obsessed with a particular form of moral hazard

Debt crisis threatens to break up Europe – The Telegraph

Philip Aldrick: Tensions within the eurozone over how to resolve the debt crisis are turning countries against each other and threatening to rip Europe apart, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has warned.

Euro elites should say if they could ever view single currency as a failure – The Telegraph

Roger Bootle: What conditions could convince the euro elites that the euro was a failure and if they can imagine such conditions, then what stops them from concluding that they exist now?

From Euro Area Summit to the periphery "bridge loan" – Sober Look

a quick recap of major events in the Eurozone

Draghi breaks the ultimate euro taboo – Gavyn Davies / FT

Mr Draghi could simply have repeated the old line that the operation of the Target 2 system is enough to ensure that the euro can never fall apart. By admitting the reality that the system is no longer 100 per cent credible in the eyes of the market, the ECB president has invited investors to ask whether his proposed interventions are powerful enough to deal with problem he has raised.

Statement by the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF on Greece – IMF

The World from Berlin 'Vengeance for ECB Bond-Buying Will Be Bitter' – Spiegel

Investors may not have liked what European Central Bank head Mario Draghi had to say on Thursday, but it was the clearest indication yet that a plan is finally taking shape to reduce borrowing costs for Spain and Italy. Germany remains wary, though, and commentators say the outcome could be disastrous.

Escalation of the Extortion Racket: Now It’s ‘The Dissolution Of Europe’ Not Just the Eurozone – Testosterone Pit

All roads lead to a disintegration of the Euro – Lighthouse IM
Sooner or later, something has got to give. There are no good outcomes. Deleveraging of excessive debt levels hurts, especially if the country seen as imposing those conditions is doing relatively fine. A Euro-exit by Germany, possibly together with the Netherlands, would be the least catastrophic “solution”, allowing the rest of Europe to regain competitiveness by weakening their Euro.

OTHER

Will Stocks Soar to New Highs? – Pension Pulse

longer report with bull and bear factors

Tale of Two Charts: S&P500 and Russell 2000 – Global Macro Monitor

Interesting divergence between the S&P500 and Russell 2000 in the month of July.   The S&P is in a classic short-term uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows since bottoming in early June.  The Russell, however, after making a short-term high in July broke its uptrend line and has been making lower highs.

Things that make you go hmmm – Grant Williams / ZH

Excellent newsletter, plenty on ECB (or download the pdf)