Picks from
the ending week’s posts.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
EU leaders may soon have to choose between
keeping the euro and maintaining democracy, says Mats Persson.
Going for (long-run) Greek growth – alphaville
/ FT
The recent price move means you’re now paying
50 cents for the chance of getting one euro of payout in 2015, up from 32
cents. So something is changing. Fascinating to consider how this might
develop, because the warrants are like a convex bet for the eurozone crisis,
offering a potential return many times higher than the short-term downside
which you are being asked to hold. The upside is not short-term.
Confidence and Enthusiasm – Hussman Funds
The present confidence and enthusiasm of
investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors
the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence
of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007 about the durability of housing
gains and leverage-driven prosperity. Market history is littered with unfounded
faith in new economic eras, and hopes that “this time is different.”
European Crisis Monitor – The Big
Picture
Bloomberg’s
daily brief on Europe
HSBC has a remarkably sunny note out on the
prospect of unlimited bond market intervention by the ECB, driving short term
sovereign yields significantly lower. (full note link in the article)
Some PMIs went up, but the
eurozone is still headed for recession – alphaville
/ FT
Spanish and Italian bond issuance, once the holiday is over – alphaville
/ FT
An ECB “CGBPP”
– alphaville
/ FT
This one’s from Citi’s Global Economic Outlook
for August, which dubs the expected ECB operation the “Conditional Government
Bond Purchase Programme” (snappy!). Citi forecasts that the ‘CGBPP’ will concentrate on buying
T-bills. These are usually protected from losses during a sovereign debt
restructuring
Studies in pre-commitmentphobia: The case of the ECB – alphaville
/ FT
What this meatless announcement also did was
give every analyst (and ahem… blogger) something to write/speculate about in an
otherwise quiet month.
Greek Q&A: Will they get
the next tranche?
1: Key
events –BNY
Mellon
3: What is
the position of others in the Euro-area? –BNY
Mellon
OTHER
GS On What's Really Happening In Markets And The Economy – BI
90-slide
presentation from Goldman Sachs
Once again the recovery has been derailed and
the outlook remains subdued * Many roadblocks to be passed before euro crisis
tapers off * Tight financial and fiscal conditions keep euro area in recession
* High uncertainty to keep US growth below trend despite better fundamentals *
China has room to manoeuvre, policy stimulus to lift growth by year-end *
Policymakers digging deeper in toolboxes – central banks to ease further
Copper Leads Global Growth – The
Short Side of The Long
Very nice
and long piece of the markets from the point of copper.
Drug money, criminal at the start, is criminal
and dirty no matter how many times it is laundered. The bankers know this
better than anyone. Yet they do it every day, every week, every year and every
decade in every major financial centre and everyone knows it.
"Pre-crisis, there were three basic types of global macro players.
There was Old School Macro. Think..." – alphaville / FT
Interactive overview of global house prices and rents – The
Economist
Highlights of R in Finance 2012 – Portfolio
Probe
HFT charts of the day, trading-cost edition – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Liquidity and Asset Prices – mathfinance.cn
An excellent review book on liquidity and asset
prices by three experts Yakov Amihud, Haim Mendelson, and Lasse Heje Pedersen.
A good bed reading one. (full pdf)
Here are some compelling articles you may have
missed
How Change Happens – John
Mauldin / The Big Picture
On
complexity, why disasters happen and where do the fat tails come from.
Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women? – Mish’s
IN FINNISH
Suomen 90-luvun kriisin syyt ja seurakset
(2001) – VATT
(pdf)
Jaakko Kianderin 170-sivuinen järkäle. Koska harva tuntee
edellistä rytinää. Globaali velkavetoinen kiinteistökupla puhkeaa,
vientimarkkinat sakkaavat, kotitaloudet velkaisia, rahapolitiikasta on luovuttu.
Koska te opitte – saatanan tunarit!
Näin Suomen kriisivakuudet
haihtuvat jo ilmaan – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Otit vain pieniä askeleita ja olet liittovaltiossa
– TalSa
EU-liittovaltio ja Suomi - sata ja kymppi
– Olli
Pusa / US Puheenvuoro