Good morning and good luck. With the lack of calendar events (data or otherwise) ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, followed by the all-important European mid-September events, this week could be range-driven and even minor commentary could be interpreted by the markets as a hint of policy. Thus, I think we might see some nervous but quiet trading and oversized reactions to minor comments - throwing away the news feeds and just looking at the charts is advised.
I've been busy during the weekend: here's what you might have missed:
25.8. Weekender: Weekly Support (still updating!)
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Hardly any weekend news to disturb the Asian
open today. There was some disappointment over China not announcing any
additional easing measures, with last week’s weak flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC increasing the
expectancy/urgency of such a move.
Market
Preview – Saxo Bank
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Asian markets were mixed overnight * No major
news out during the weekend – focus turns to Bernanke’s Friday speech * EUR/USD
trades around 1.25. Brent oil remains above USD116 per barrel * Swedish retail
sales and German IFO are the main data releases today
Morning
Briefing (EU/US):– BNY Mellon
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
Keskuspankeilta
vihjeitä lisäelvytyksestä, muttei vielä uusia toimia * Merkeliltä ei lisäaikaa
Kreikalle * Korkojen turvasatamavirrat vahvistuivat Kreikka-spekuloinnin
säikäytettyä sijoittajat
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Viikon tärkein
makroluku, Saksan talouden kehitystä kuvaava IFO -indeksi, julkaistaan
aamupäivällä. Viikonloppuna pidetään keskuspankkiirien puheita Jackson Hole
seminaarissa. Markkinan suunta:
FED:n Bernanken kirje kiritti osakemarkkinan
nousuun viime viikon päätteeksi. Merkel, Hollande ja Samaras eivät
yllättäneet viikonlopun aikana uusilla
linjanvedoilla. Merkel kommentoi EVM:n olevan välttämätön ja kommentoi EKP:llä
olevan mandaatin tehdä PIIGS-maiden velkakirjojen ostoja puolustaakseen euroa. IFO-indeksi,
viikon tärkein makroluku, julki heti aamupäivästä. Osakefutuurit nyt
marginaalisesti miinuksella Merkelin kommenteista huolimatta.
EUROPE
Bundesbank's Weidmann Warns: Debt Monetization
Is An Addictive Drug
– ZH
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has strongly
criticized of the plans of the European Central Bank to launch a new program to
purchase government bonds. “Such a policy is for me too reminiscent of public
funding via printing”
The Up-To-The-Minute Guide For Understanding Europe – Mark
Grant / ZH
Funny, if it weren’t true. Dictionary of sorts.
Funny, if it weren’t true. Dictionary of sorts.
With Vacation Over, Europe Is Back To Square Minus One: Merkel
Backs Weidmann, Demands Federalist State – ZH
"I think it is good that Jens Weidmann
warns the politicians again and again," Merkel said. "I support Jens
Weidmann, and believe it is a good thing that he, as the head of the German
Bundesbank, has much influence in the ECB."
OTHER
Summer moved on – Nordea
I have a feeling that Bernanke’s speech will be
more important for USDJPY – come there a “no QE3″, alongside better US reports
this week, USDJPY will get a lift. In
general, this Friday will be the beginning of the key events waiting for us in
the weeks to come, among others ECB meeting (September 6), German court ruling
(September 12), FOMC meeting (September 13).
So let the summer finish and the autumn fun begin. Stay tuned!
Which Asset Classes Are Most Vulnerable To
'Policy' Disappointment? – ZH
Deutche
Bank’s interesting data tables. Equities are the most exposed class.
We have noted for quite a long time that the
massive stimulus after the 2008 financial crisis has been widely regarded as a
big mistake by commentators and economists within China, and we believe that
some inside the government’s decision making body share that view.
A healthy correction? – Humble
Student
Last Monday, I wrote that I was getting bullish
but equities looked a tad overbought and I was waiting for a corrective
pullback. As the markets appear to have begun to pull back last week, my
intermediate term view remains bullish as signs of a global cyclical turnaround
are everywhere.