Some charts from the past two days to kick off the evening post:
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| US capital investments looking bad... |
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| Consumer confidence looks bad... |
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| Confidence levels suggest bad times for US stocks... |
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| Emerging markets also dependent on QE |
We have bad macro, zirp, repeated QE, possible European meltdown - and China is doing badly. US corporate earnings are at historic highs. Just what or who is going to make the day for the bulls, US housing and coming economic strength that pulls everyone else along? Ideas welcome. Also some Finnish articles at the bottom. Enjoy!
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups & Commentary
News –
Between The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
The T
Report – TF
Market Advisors
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
VIX
Rises, Equity Futures Fall, Volume Disappears (Again)
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
Balkanisierung – alphaville
/ FT
If you’re a central banker, how might you
counteract the trend for core banks to match assets with liabilities in their
peripheral subsidiaries? One reason, perhaps, that bond-buying won’t be the end
of efforts to tackle convertibility risk.
Charting sovereign bond holdings across the
eurozone – alphaville
/ FT
At a point when government bonds are considered
risky assets, euro-area banks are faced with both balance sheet and
reputational risks compared to their non-euro area counterparts, and may prove
reluctant to increase this exposure further.
Has the EU failed its original agenda? – qfinance
Perhaps the European Commission should consider
a back track of policy and only aim for a softer political union similar to the
post war arrangement, scrapping the idea of a single European currency.
Which way for Europe? – bruegel
The big question to which nobody has a clear
answer is whether Europe is in the process of inventing a model of its own or whether it has
only taken a detour from the inevitable choice between disaggregation and
convergence on the standard federal template.
The European Commission is busy drafting a
proposal to create a European banking union, with the European Central Bank at
the heart of a new system of integrated banking supervision, designed to help
restore confidence in the euro. Such a mechanism is essential to ensuring
confidence and financial stability.
Euro-zone bailout fund struggling to find
demand – Nordea
Even these orders were received after price
concessions.
EUROPE: ECB
Buba Strikes Back To Draghi OpEd With Weidmann
Interview – ZH
Weidmann: The Fed is not bailing out a cash-strapped
country. It's also not distributing risks among the taxpayers of individual
countries. It's purchasing bonds issued by a central government with an
excellent credit rating. It doesn't touch Californian bonds or bonds from other
US states. That's completely different from what we have in Europe.
Policy of targeting "monetary
transmission" by the ECB looks good in theory, but questions about
independence remain
– Sober
Look
5 press article
summaries with links
OTHER
Is This The Fed's Secret Weapon? – ZH
The difference between price level targeting
(PT) and the more familiar inflation targeting (IT) is that under PT the
central bank has to make up for past misses of the inflation target, while IT
lets bygones be bygones. This becomes crucial in times of sustained misses of
the target.
Around the world, concern is growing that China’s economy could be
headed for a hard landing. But the doom-and-gloom hype overlooks one of the
most important drivers of China’s modernization: the
greatest urbanization story the world has ever seen – and one that will fuel
investment and consumption for decades to come.
Inflation is now low in every industrial
country, while high unemployment and slow GDP growth removes the usual sources of
upward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, investors are increasingly worried about
future inflation, owing to the large expansion of commercial bank reserves
engineered by the Federal Reserve and the ECB.
IN FINNISH
Kaaoksella hekumointi
ja odottaminen sairasta politiikkaa – Seppo-Juha-Pietikäinen
/ US Puheenvuoro
Artikkeli on surullinen esimerkki proeuroleirin analyysi- ja
argumentointitaidoista. Tyylilleen uskollisena SJP nurkkaan jouduttuaan
yksinkertaisesti vaikenee ja vaihtaa puheenaihetta. Ei jatkoon.
Juhana Vartiainen:
Jos euro romuttuu, tarvitaan uusi rahaliitto – KU
Suomen Pankin
Liikanen Aamulehdessä: "Eurokriisi voi jatkua vielä vuosia" – TalSa
Taakka – Hannu Visti
Ajan hengessä on
jotain äärettömän outoa, sillä yhteiskunnan sentimentti tuntuu kallistuvan
enemmän ja enemmän kieltämisen kannalle. Ikään kuin tuskailemme kaiken
vapautemme taakan alla ja ahdistusta lieventääksemme taakkaa pitää keventää
luopumalla osasta kuormaa. Mutta milloin vapaudesta on tullut tällainen
sietämätön taakka?