To make matters worse, my less handsome partner has as of yesterday started to follow the Big Brother's local edition on television. Now she is constantly bugging me to open up the laptop, turn off the screen saver and so on. Oh, the humanity! Damn you, BB!
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups & Commentary
News –
Between The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
Europe Closes Red As London's Credit Reality Returns
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
Equities
Unch As VIX 'Premium-To-Realized' Nears Three-Month High
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
The Euro Crisis Is Back From Vacation – NYT
Here is a guide to the new season’s most
intriguing (and terrifying) story lines.
Anti-EU, Anti-Brussels Sentiment Rises in Netherlands; Don't Expect Much From a "Merkollande" Summit – Mish’s
German economy converging with the Eurozone's – Sober
Look
At this stage it's only a matter of time before
Germany's GDP (which is a lagging indicator) turns negative.
When it comes to entering the Chinese market, Germany is significantly ahead of most other EU countries.
It’s easy to forget for instance that the
current Greek bailout talks technically started way back in March. The official
Troika review of the programme isn’t expected to finish until October.
If Europe wants to revive sustainable growth and high employment, it must
replicate what has worked in those countries that have performed successfully.
Doing so will cost money, and governments must be prepared to persuade their
electorates that it would be money well spent.
Why an ECB interest rate target (or band) is
not the answer – Daiwa
…with or without an interest rate target, the
success and the sustainability of any future ECB interventions will ultimately
depend on the peripheral governments’ ability to meet the conditionality
required. The long-term future of the euro, meanwhile, will depend on the
willingness of all euro area governments to embrace much closer fiscal and
economic integration.
A German Sovereign Wealth Fund to save the
euro – voxeu.org
by Daniel
Gros, Thomas Mayer (I posted this earlier
when it was behind FT’s paywall)
EUROPE: SPAIN
Here is a presentation containing charts and
comments supporting our general view on Spain. I have added a slide
on the order of events leading to a Spanish request for rescue fund support
topped with ECB intervention, which I believe will happen within a month or
two.
Spain: Shall Bitterly Begin His Fearful Date – Mark
Grant / ZH
If the government of Spain is allowing this “dynamic provisioning” for their banks; what makes you think that they are not using the exact same scheme for their national data? If Spain is allowing the numbers for their banks to be cooked then I would assert that they are following the same plan with the country’s numbers so that nothing about the Spanish banks or the Spanish GDP, debt to GDP and the size of their economy is even remotely believable.
If the government of Spain is allowing this “dynamic provisioning” for their banks; what makes you think that they are not using the exact same scheme for their national data? If Spain is allowing the numbers for their banks to be cooked then I would assert that they are following the same plan with the country’s numbers so that nothing about the Spanish banks or the Spanish GDP, debt to GDP and the size of their economy is even remotely believable.
An internal review within the ECB is due by 6
September on the practicalities of how this linkage can be made between a
central bank - supposedly strictly independent from politics and governments -
and a governments' bailout fund using taxpayers' money.
USA
Steen
Jakobsen: Ben Bernanke is very unlikely
to announce a third round of quantitative easing at Jackson Hole. He will likely extend talk of
lower federal funds rates into 2015. Expecting more in a US election year and
ahead of European clarity is asking too much.
Is The 'Counter' Trade On? – ZH
Asset-class movements and sector-rotations
suggest something is afoot. Since the peak in the S&P 500 last week, we
have seen a clear rotation from cyclicals to non-cyclicals, a major rotation
from stocks into bonds, and a significant regime change in the relationship
between Gold, the USD, and Treasury prices.
OTHER
A corny FX chart – alphaville
/ FT
What
nations are impacted by food prices and how their currencies correlate with the
food prices.
Societe Generale: the central government will
have to take the burden onto its own balance sheet as the NPL cycle reaches its
final days of reckoning. The fiscal cost will only be higher the longer the
process drags on, and a bigger concern is that more resources may be locked in
these non-performing assets.
IN FINNISH
Suomalaiset
EU-asiantuntijat ja kompetenssi – median
vahtikoira
Tämäkö ei ole
salaliitto - Suomi maksaa muiden puolesta eurojäsenyysrahaa – Arhi
Kuittinen / US Puheenvuoro
Sadan miljardin
pankkituki Espanjaan... kerran kuussa? – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Wahlroos taas
vauhdissa: kriisi ratkaistavissa kahdessa viikossa – AL
Espanjassa
talletuspakokauhua heinäkuussa – euroetana
Rakennusluvat
lisääntyivät kesäkuussa – euroetana