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Thursday, January 12

12th Jan - Livermore!

Jesse Livermore (1877 - 1940)
The auction went ok, but as the maturity was short, this was quite expected. ECB (and BoE) met and did nothing, as things are somewhat more stabile now, with LTRO and all,  but Monti stated there are still downside risks - so nothing much, the obvious was said and vigilance and possibility of further action was signaled. Note the book link at the bottom of the post.

- MoreLiver
To the links:

News 12-Jan evening – BTH

Recap 12-Jan – GMT
FX option vols – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Recapturing the losses of the crisisalphaville / FT
Some banks made such awful losses during the crisis they opted to store the losses on balance sheets for a sunny day when they started making profits again.

Monti and Merkel: Financial tax must cover whole
and Sarkozy wants an agreement before elections, or it would implement it alone.

PIIGS et al
Market Implies Greek Devaluation To 1530 Drachma Versus EuroZH
MSCI analysis: Greeks entered the EMU in January 2001 at 340.75 Drachma to the Euro, the current market is pricing in a massive devaluation to around 1530 Drachma to the Euro.

Debunking the 7 per cent thresholdalphaville / FT
SocGen: Any such threshold yield would need to take into account countryspecific fundamentals, and the characteristics of debt issued discussed above, including its duration and its composition.

Italian yield curve steepens as bill rate collapsesSober Look
In spite of this impressive performance, a great deal of risk is still priced into the longer-term paper.  The yield curve has gone from "inverted" to "extremely steep" as the probability of default shifts further out in time

Art Cashin Explains Why The One Key Indicator That Matters For Italy Is Flashing RedZH
The immigrants still come to their way station of Patras (hope still blooms). But now, after a couple of weeks in
Greece, they are trying to hop ships going the other way.

Playing Chicken And Rooster With HungaryA Fistful of Euros
…who will blink first. Hungary may blink since the country’s leaders may not wish to find themselves outside the EU and forced into default. Or alternately, some of Orban’s advisers may already accept this scenario as an inevitability, and welcome default as the only way of getting to grips with the forex debt problem.

Important sidebar about central bankingMosler Economics
Email from Nomura’s JJ Lando: Whatever money the ECB creates winds up on deposit in its member banks, whether or not it is ‘used’ to buy sovereign debt, ‘used’ to make loans, or not used at all.

ECB meeting press conference statementECB

ECB Meeting: ECB prefers to wait and seeDanske (pdf)

E.C.B. Promises Continued Support for Europe BanksNYT

Cautious on the economy, happy with liquidityFree exchange / The Economist

European Central Bank in GraphicsReuters
Collection of charts – hat tip to The Trader.

EMEA WeeklyDanske (pdf)

Global economic rebalancing is likely to accelerate, almost inevitably giving rise to political tensions.

The Straits of AmericaNouriel Roubini / Project Syndicate
Given all of these large and small risks, businesses, consumers, and investors have a strong incentive to wait and do little. The problem, of course, is that when enough people wait and don’t act, they heighten the very risks that they are trying to avoid.

Financial sector regulation for growth, equity and stabilityBIS
With emerging markets perspective, full conference proceedings from 15-16 Nov

Artificial intelligence and robotics, the next disruptive force?Saxo

How Facebook’s Expected $100 Billion IPO Breaks DownMashable
Nice infographic

Banksters and Gangsters with Eliot SpitzerThe Big Picture

Reminiscences of a Stock (pdf)
Full book in pdf format.