Okay, holidays are over and a short week is ahead of us. The French bond auction on Thursday and Merkozy meeting next Monday are the most important events for now. Any action on periphery bonds is of course closely watched. I've updated the 2012 post and made some entries to Calendar.
- MoreLiver
Daily (2-Jan) – Danske (pdf)
FX option vols – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Then to the links:
EURO CRISIS
Deposits With ECB Decline By €30 Billion In New Year, Still Near All Time Record – ZH
So at least some LTRO parking to ECB was due to the end of the year.
So at least some LTRO parking to ECB was due to the end of the year.
23 minute documentary. Haven't watched but heard some positive comments.
Spain is not looking really hot, but that is hardly news. The new austerity announcements have kind of countered the bad news. To me it sounds very 'Greeky' - budget deficits climbing in the face of recession more than was expected is the new normal.
The real economy did not do too much in December, and what it did was not pretty.
These are of interest as these speeches are for the electorate – so austerity it is.
The 10th anniversary of euro banknotes and coins – ECB
2011/2012 (more here)
Goldman On The Five Key Questions For 2012 – ZH
1) will US growth pick up: NO 2) European risk: ?? 3) will US housing bottom: YES 4) inflation over/under Fed’s target: UNDER 5) will Fed ease: YES
1) will US growth pick up: NO 2) European risk: ?? 3) will US housing bottom: YES 4) inflation over/under Fed’s target: UNDER 5) will Fed ease: YES
2012 Investment Predictions & Outlooks List for – Pragmatic Capitalism
Huge link list.
Vampire Squid Watch: 4 Scary Economic Trends for 2012 – The Big Picture
Euro back-door bailout, political finance, pathological corporate leadership.
The Dismal Outlook for 2012 – The Big Picture
euro, gold, bonds, stocks, China
Prediction Addiction: 2012 Edition – Capital Spectator
Linked views for major asset classes.
Volatility Outlook 2012 – The Trader
JPM: short skew, short correlation and short convexity bias, as these metrics are all currently expensive.
Nomura: 7 key calls for 2012 – Pragmatic Capitalism
Back to fundamentals in 2012 – Humble Student of the Markets
The market should return to focusing on fundamental and economics in 2012. The financial market was largely driven by European news in 2011 as it was concerned the possibility of a Lehman-like market crash.
OTHER
In pursuit of the elusive soft-landing – Follow the money / ZH
Last to go through the motions are the BRIC -- Brazil, Russia, India and China. Some had hoped they would be immune to the U.S. and Europe blight because of their developing domestic markets. That’s turning out to be a foolish miscalculation.
Collateral Damage – John Mauldin / The Big Picture
The economic travails of much of the West are reaching a decisive stage as the year ends.
DIVERSION
The wife of Swiss National Bank’s head sold CHF short few days before the devaluation. A tip from husband? Why the bank leaked the news?
Visualizing citations in research literature – FlowingData
A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web! – Simoleon Sense