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Monday, January 2

2nd Jan - Back to Biz


Okay, holidays are over and a short week is ahead of us. The French bond auction on Thursday and  Merkozy meeting next Monday are the most important events for now. Any action on periphery bonds is of course closely watched. I've updated the 2012 post and made some entries to Calendar.

- MoreLiver

Daily (2-Jan) – Danske (pdf)
FX option vols – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Then to the links: 

EURO CRISIS
Deposits With ECB Decline By €30 Billion In New Year, Still Near All Time RecordZH
So at least some LTRO parking to ECB was due to the end of the year.

Europe at the Brink – A WSJ DocumentaryThe Big Picture
23 minute documentary. Haven't watched but heard some positive comments.

The Rain In Spain Falls Mainly On The Journalists, It SeemsA Fistful of Euros
Spain is not looking really hot, but that is hardly news. The new austerity announcements have kind of countered the bad news. To me it sounds very 'Greeky' - budget deficits climbing in the face of recession more than was expected is the new normal.
 
Euro PMI’s Contract, New Orders Fall Faster than OutputMish’s
The real economy did not do too much in December, and what it did was not pretty.

New Year speeches voice fears on future of Europeeuobserver.com
These are of interest as these speeches are for the electorate – so austerity it is.

The 10th anniversary of euro banknotes and coinsECB

2011/2012 (more here)
Goldman On The Five Key Questions For 2012ZH
1) will
US growth pick up: NO 2) European risk: ?? 3) will US housing bottom: YES 4) inflation over/under Fed’s target: UNDER 5) will Fed ease: YES

2012 Investment Predictions & Outlooks List forPragmatic Capitalism
Huge link list.

Vampire Squid Watch: 4 Scary Economic Trends for 2012The Big Picture
Euro back-door bailout, political finance, pathological corporate leadership.

The Dismal Outlook for 2012The Big Picture
euro, gold, bonds, stocks, China

Prediction Addiction: 2012 EditionCapital Spectator
Linked views for major asset classes.

Volatility Outlook 2012The Trader
JPM: short skew, short correlation and short convexity bias, as these metrics are all currently expensive.

Nomura: 7 key calls for 2012Pragmatic Capitalism

Back to fundamentals in 2012Humble Student of the Markets
The market should return to focusing on fundamental and economics in 2012. The financial market was largely driven by European news in 2011 as it was concerned the possibility of a Lehman-like market crash.

OTHER
In pursuit of the elusive soft-landingFollow the money / ZH
Last to go through the motions are the BRIC -- Brazil, Russia, India and China.  Some had hoped they would be immune to the U.S. and Europe blight because of their developing domestic markets. That’s turning out to be a foolish miscalculation.

Collateral DamageJohn Mauldin / The Big Picture
The economic travails of much of the West are reaching a decisive stage as the year ends.

DIVERSION
I love a stinkBruce Krasting
The wife of Swiss National Bank’s head sold CHF short few days before the devaluation. A tip from husband? Why the bank leaked the news?

Visualizing citations in research literatureFlowingData

A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web!Simoleon Sense