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Wednesday, January 4

4th Jan - Greek Ultimatum


Daily 4-Jan – Danske (pdf)
News 4-Jan morning – BTH
Preview 4-Jan – Saxo
Daily 4-JanBNY Mellon
 The Euro-zone’s first big hurdle is far from being its last
FX option vols – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
 
To the links:

EURO CRISIS
Eurozone citizens not benefitting from ECB's easingSober Look
ECB’s easy monetary policy is not translating into improved credit conditions.

Another year, and the Eurozone crisis lingers on. This column asks why, and discusses what can be done. It proposes a solution that can be achieved without the pain of a new EU treaty.

GREECE
What is Greece's Least Bad Option?Mish’s
The worst option for Greece and the banks is for Greece to stay the course for years (as it has) then eventually give up (which it will). The best option from the point of view of Greece (as well as the EMU) is for Greece to default and kiss the Eurozone goodbye, right now.

Charting The History Of Glorious Greek-Bondholder RelationsZH

Greece warns of euro-exit as EU economies drift aparteuobserver.com

Ignorance Is (Not) StrengthISDA
It’s important to remember that those Greek debt holders who do not agree to an exchange keep their existing debt and remain entitled to repayment of principal and interest according to its terms.  Similarly, an owner of CDS protection on Greek debt continues to be protected if a credit event were to occur later.

2011 / 2012
Question #7 for 2012: State and Local GovernmentsCalculated Risk
With improving finances, the threat of a huge number of muni defaults is even less likely in 2012.

Looking Forward in the New Year: Crowding Out and Hyper-Inflation WatchEconbrowser
What is the market’s expectation on the inflation outlook.

Mark to Market - 2011 EditionMacro Man
The last year’s predictions and how things went.

OTHER
Orthodoxy Has Failed: There Is an Alternative StrategyRichard Wood / EconoMonitor
Conventional policy responses cannot simultaneously address debt problems and return these economies to strong growth and full employment.  The central issue for policy makers today is the following:  if, because of fiscal policy constraints, it is decided that new money creation is desirable to create economic stimulus, what is the best way to deploy that new money.

Is this market just amateur hour or something more?Steen’s Chronicle / Saxo
Long article on Saxo’s pessimistic scenario and possible faults in their view.

What will give U.S. bankers ulcers in 2012Wonkblog / WP
Europe, Dodd-Frank, Congress.

Fractional Money MultipliersRebecca Wilder / EconoMonitor
In response to alphaville’s article (based on SocGen’s research note) on euro credit crunch, also US suffers from low multiplier.

Avoiding fluff is surest route to success John Kay
In the business world – as sometimes in the surgery – the reputation of the CEO or value of the consultant is measured not by the accuracy of the diagnosis but by the confidence with which the prescription is dispensed.

DIVERSION
The Day the Earth Stood Still Rick Bookstaber
So for all the apparent newness we have become a culture of the remix. We think that we are in a technological revolution, but what we really have is more of the same, just faster, ever-present, and in color. We are mistaking high resolution and portability as an advancement of culture.

Why Placebos Work WondersWSJ

Placebos Are Getting More Effective. Drugmakers Are Desperate to Know Why.Wired
Very good article from 2009

Beautiful, Strange and Geeky: Top Science Image Galleries of 2011Wired

Earth: Peak to DepthThe Big Picture
Nice infographic.